Rains in the U.S. and Western Europe and drought in the Southwest of Russia will affect grain markets next week

Traders’ attention is now focused on the weather in the southwest of Russia, which will remain dry and hot for several more weeks, while winter wheat crops are experiencing a severe rainfall deficit. On the forecasts of a decline in the wheat harvest in Russia, world wheat prices for 2 months increased by 20-30%.

Since Tuesday, it has been raining in Ukraine and the southwest of Russia, but in the northern regions the rainfall was only 5-15 mm. A new wave of precipitation is expected in the coming days, but it will be light.

Next week in the Rostov region, Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, temperatures will rise to 30-35 ° C, but the lack of rain will continue to reduce the yield potential. At the same time, in the regions of cultivation of spring wheat in Russia are heavy rains, which replenish moisture reserves, although delayed sowing.

In the U.S., a short period of dry weather allowed to accelerate sowing, but next week the cyclone will bring to the Midwest and the Great Plains a new wave of favorable precipitation, although in some places they can lead to flooding. Sowing rates of soybeans and corn exceed the 5-year average, but are lower than last year. However, this week farmers will be able to complete sowing.

In the prairies of Canada, it will rain for a few more weeks, which will delay sowing, although it will increase moisture reserves. Low temperatures have a negative impact on the development of crops.

In the Central regions of Brazil remains dry and hot weather, but in the southern regions, in particular the state of Paraná, there was little rain. Corn of the second harvest has been harvested on 4% of the area, and analysts estimate the total harvest at 120-123 million tons, which corresponds to the USDA forecast.

In Argentina, dry and cool weather accelerates the harvest of soybeans and corn. But corn has high moisture content, so farmers expect frosts, after which they will continue harvesting. The dry and frosty weather is not favorable for winter wheat, but significant moisture reserves support the vegetation.

In most parts of Europe, especially in the UK, France and Germany, continue to be excessive rains, and low temperatures are not very conducive to the development of spring crops. Next week, the rains will spread to the eastern regions, where there was a lack of moisture, and temperatures will remain low.

In Australia, the rains will be held in the Eastern and Western regions, where they grow grains and oilseeds, which will allow to complete sowing of canola and accelerate the sowing of wheat and barley. The arrival of La Niña will increase the amount of favorable precipitation in the coming months.

Tags: Brazil, EU, Canada, USA, crop condition, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, Russia