Pro Farmer surprises by pointing to a US soybean crop of only 111.86 mln

The US soybean crop is expected to total 4.11 bln bushels in 2023, equivalent to 111.86 mln tons. Average yield was estimated at 49.7 bushels per acre, or 3,342 kg/ha. The forecast was released last Friday by Pro Farmer, after its traditional crop tour.

The indicated production estimate was far below the one projected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its last report, of 4.205 bln bushels, or 114.44 mln tons. The average yield indicated by Pro Farmer was also significantly lower than that of USDA, which is 50.9 bushels per acre, or 3,423 kg/ha.

The numbers drew attention, as they contrasted with a tour that revealed a picture of good development in most of the growing states surveyed, including pod counts higher than last year’s.

In any case, the Pro Farmer number brings a new alert to the market, by pointing to a possible new cut in yield and production in the next USDA report, which will be released on October 12. It is also important to remember that the weather in recent days has been drier in important growing states, besides higher temperatures, which could once again compromise crop development.

If the weather does not improve and the possibility of a new cut gains strength in the coming few days, Chicago could gain even more momentum toward USD 14.50 a bushel.

Tags: forecast, yield, USDA, estimate, soybean, US, Production, crop