Prices on Euronext are rising against the background of demands to limit grain supplies from Ukraine to the EU

Against the backdrop of a sharp collapse of quotations on the Euronext exchange, farmers in Romania, Poland and Bulgaria intensified their protests against grain supplies from Ukraine and appealed to their governments to demand increased compensation for the damages caused by the excessive volume of Ukrainian grain.

The authorities of Poland and Romania are negotiating with the European Commission to develop mechanisms for tracking the export of Ukrainian grain in order to guarantee their own farmers that they will not suffer from the flow of cheap grain.

The Bulgarian National Association of Grain Producers began a three-day strike on Wednesday against the extension of the European regulation on the duty-free import of Ukrainian agricultural products across the country.

Over the last 4 sessions, May futures on Euronext rose:

• for rapeseed – by 9% almost to last week’s level of 479.5 €/t or 519 $/t (-10% for the month),
• for corn – by 7.8% to €261.75/t or $283/t (-4.9% for the month),
• for wheat – by 7.4% to €266.25/t or $288.3/t (-3.6% for the month).

The recovery of grain exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine against the background of falling prices on the European market will redirect the supply of cheap Ukrainian grain to other markets, which will stabilize prices within the EU. And the restoration of stock market quotations will strengthen domestic demand for agricultural products.

In 2022/23 MY, as of March 26, the Council of Ministers of the EU increased the export of soft wheat by 8% to 22.66 million tons compared to the same period of the previous season, the main sellers of which were France (8.7 million tons), Romania (2, 9 million tons), Germany (2.7 million tons) and Lithuania (1.97 million tons).

The largest buyers of soft European wheat in the current season were Morocco (3.567 million tons compared to 0.985 million tons in 2021/22 MY), Algeria (3.284 million tons against 3.179 million tons last year), Nigeria (1.922 million tons against 1.532 million tons last year), Egypt (1.628 million tons against 2.139 million tons last year), Saudi Arabia (1.114 million tons against 0.519 million tons last year).

The export of barley from the EU in 2022/23 MY does not yet exceed 4.43 million tons, although last year in this period it reached 6.29 million tons.

As of March 26, the import of corn to the EU in the 2022/23 MY has increased compared to the previous season from 12.08 to 20.38 million tons due to a significant increase in supplies from Ukraine.