Prices for rapeseed in Ukraine continue to decline amid declining export demand

Blocking of the border by Polish “farmers” almost stopped the already small supplies of rapeseed from Ukraine to Germany or the Baltic countries. As a result, prices for rapeseed in the western regions of Ukraine decreased from 15300-15500 UAH/t on FCA – farm a few weeks ago to 14700-15000 UAH/t, while prices in ports fell to 16000-16200 UAH/t or 370 $/t.

Quotes of European rapeseed during the week rose by 2% amid restrictions on supplies from Ukraine, but they are under pressure from lower prices for canola in Canada.

May Futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF during the week rose by 1.9% to 426,75 €/t or 459,5 $/t (-1.6% for the month), but remain low.

Following the decline in prices for soybeans and soybean oil in the United States, which is used in the production of biodiesel, March canola futures on the stock exchange in Winnipeg last week fell by 5.8%, but on Friday rose 2.7% to 578 CAD/t or 428 $/t (-10% for the month).

Intensification of the soybean harvest in South America and forecasts of increased soybean acreage in the United States also increase pressure on the quotes of soybeans and canola.

In the February report, the experts of the Ministry of agriculture of Canada (AAFC) lowered compared to the estimates of January forecast of exports of canola for 2023/24 MG by 0.7 million tons to 7 million tons, which is 1 million tons less than in 2022/23 MG, while the estimate of stocks increased compared to last year from 1.5 to 2 million tons.

Decline in prices for Canadian canola to 420-430 USD/t will boost its supply to the EU, where prices rose to 460-470 USD/t, which will increase competition with Australian and Ukrainian rapeseed in the European market.

Tags: prices, rapeseed, Ukraine