Oilseeds Production-2022 Forecast in Ukraine

UkrAgroConsult

Key topics at the moment:

• Outlook of 2021/22 exports, the current domestic market price trends and estimated domestic stocks;
• 2022 spring planting campaign and harvest prospects;
• Logistics issues.

 Summary

Under high risks, when ag markets may change very quickly and unexpectedly, UkrAgroConsult offers you optimistic, pessimistic and medium scenarios. We suggest you to take a medium one as a basis now, which predicts the following oilseed harvests:

• SFS – 10.5-12.0 M mt vs. 16.5 M mt last year;
• soybeans – 2.9 M mt vs. 3.5 M mt;
• rapeseed – 2.9 M mt vs. 3.1 M mt last year.

Ukraine plays a significant role in world food markets, remaining the top sunflower oil  supplier and accounting for almost half of SFO total exports worldwide.

Currently making the 2022 planting campaign successful is one of the top priorities. As of April 7, 2022, plantings started all across Ukraine with rates being ahead of last year:

• sunflower – 108.1 K ha (75.5 K ha y/y);
• soybeans – 14.1 K ha (not started yet by this date last year);
• spring rapeseed – 11.6 K ha (not started yet by this date last year).

 Sunflower and Sunflower Oil

UkrAgroConsult assessment for the 2022/23 season:

• Sunflower areas might go down seriously;
• Sunflower oil exports will recover due to high sunseed opening stocks of the 2022/23 if the Black Sea ports renew their activity.

Soybeans

UkrAgroConsult does not expect soybean  area shrink significantly as almost all soy fields are located in areas of low war risk. Moreover, soy areas might grow in western Ukraine, which hosts most soybean processing facilities, with soybeans and soybean meal traditionally highly demanded by the EU markets.

According to UkrAgroConsult medium/basic scenario soybean crop-2022 in Ukraine can be between 2.8-3 M mt.

Rapeseed

Record large winter rapeseed areas for 2022 crop were sown in the autumn 2021. About 98% of rapeseed areas in Ukraine are winter varieties. Much of rapeseed plantings are in  good conditions after wintering with minimal losses. The harvested area might  decrease because roughly 300 K ha are in the high risk regions. However, the rapeseed 2022 production will be at least at its three-year average level, and traditionally aimed to export to the EU markets.

More detailed information on the latest trends in oilseeds/vegoils and meals exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers of ‘BLACK SEA VEGOIL’ Weekly Report by UkrAgroConsult.

Request a free a sample report and apply for subscription here.

Be confident with your business and trade strategy based on professional analysis and forecasts of the Black Sea agri market.

(Based on UkrAgroConsult webinar BLACK SEA GRAIN. CONFLICTING S&D as of April 6, 2022)

Tags: sunflower oil, sunflower, UkrAgroConsult, soybean, rapeseed, crop forecast, Ukraine