The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Thursday, with the largest gains in the nearby November contract as participants continued to roll their positions out of the front month ahead of its expiry.
Bullish chart signals and gains in Chicago soybeans underpinned canola, with the more-active January contract settling above its 100-day moving average for the first time in four months. Historically wide crush margins and a lack of significant farmer selling were also supportive as seasonal harvest pressure subsides.
However, while soybeans held onto gains, soyoil retreated below unchanged which weighed somewhat on the canola market.
About 35,315 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 53,445 contracts changed hands. Spreading was a feature, accounting for 27,300 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Thursday, as weakness in the United States dollar and solid export demand provided support.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 2.3 million tonnes, which was at the high end of expectations. Additional flash sales of 201,000 tonnes to China and an additional 132,000 tonnes to other unknown destinations were also reported.
The International Grains Council released updated world supply/demand estimates, lowering their world production estimate for 2022/23 by a million tonnes – now at 386 million. That would still be well above the 355 million tonnes grown the previous year. Carryout stocks were forecast to rise to 54 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 53 million and last year’s ending stocks of 46 million.
CORN was stronger on Thursday amid ideas losses posted earlier in the week were overdone.
Weekly U.S. corn export sales of 408,000 tonnes were in line with expectations.
The IGC lowered their estimate for world corn production in 2022/23 by two million tonnes, to 1.166 billion tonnes. Ending stocks were forecast at 258 million, down by four million from the September estimate and well off the 280 million tonne carryout from the previous year.
WHEAT was higher in all three markets. Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their forecast for this year’s wheat crop in the country to only 15 million tonnes, citing the persistent drought and more recent frost damage. That compares with the
USDA’s current estimate of 17.5 million tonnes.
Weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 163,000 tonnes were below average trade estimates.
The uncertainty over grain exports through the Black Sea remained a feature in the background of the wheat market.
