North American Grain and Oilseed Review: July tumbles as new crop attempts recovery

Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) pulled back on Friday, as the rolling out of the old crop July contract continued. The new crop positions were still down, but finished well off of their lows.

Seeding progress made good gains this week, including throughout much of the soaked eastern Prairies. While the speed of planting is much further along on the western Prairies, crops are becoming in need of sufficient rainfall.

The weather outlook for Western Canada over the coming week has very little rain and daytime temperatures peaking at normal.

Alberta reported that spring planting of all crops reached 95 per cent complete province-wide.

Canola exports for the week ended May 29 were a mere 900 tonnes, compared to 33,300 tonnes the previous week. Producer deliveries rose 9.2 per cent at 117,400 tonnes and domestic usage was up 23.5 per cent at 186,800 tonnes.

The Canadian dollar was up a pinch at mid-afternoon, with the loonie nudging up to 79.45 U.S. cents, compared to Thursday’s close of 79.38.

There were 23,708 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 22,003 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,524 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 1,108.80 dn 33.10
Nov 1,039.30 dn 2.10
Jan 1,043.90 dn 1.90
Mar 1,042.60 dn 4.60

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Friday, as export sales were largely disappointing.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported soybean export sales for the week ending May 26 were 111,600 tonnes of old crop and 284,000 tonnes of new crop. Both were towards the low end of market expectations. Soymeal export sales came to 188,900 tonnes of old crop and only 100 tonnes of new crop, with combined sales also on the low end. Those for soyoil came to 4,200 tonnes, leaning towards the high side.

The USDA will release its next supply and demand report on June 10 at 11 am CDT.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) has upped it forecast on Argentina’s soybean harvest by 3.1 per cent, now calling for 43.3 million tonnes. The harvest was reported to be 94 per cent complete.

WHEAT futures lost ground on Friday, with Chicago and Kansas City incurring larger losses than Minneapolis.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast two to three inches of rain for Kansas over the coming week, with Oklahoma and Texas to get one-tenth to an inch.

Wheat exports for the week were a mere 700 tonnes of old crop and 372,700 tonnes of new crop. Old crop was within expectations, while new crop exceeded predictions. The new marketing year for wheat began on Wednesday.

France trimmed two points off of its wheat quality ratings, which is now at 67 per cent good to excellent. French wheat has lost 22 points over the past month.

SovEcon projected 2022/23 Russian wheat exports of 42.3 million tonnes, up 3.2 per cent from the consultancy’s previous estimate.

Australian farmers are projected to plant a record 35.83 million acres of wheat in 2022/23.

The BAGE estimated Argentine farmers will seed 16.06 million acres in the coming year.

CORN futures were lower on Friday, following soybeans and wheat to the downside.

The USDA said corn export sales came to 185,800 tonnes of old crop and 48,700 tonnes of new crop. Old crop sales were towards the low end of market projections, while new crop came in well below.

The USDA announced a private sale of 101,600 tonnes of old crop corn to unknown destinations.

The BAGE said 32 per cent of Argentina’s corn harvest is finished, with the crop at 15 per cent good to excellent.

The harvest of the second corn crop has begun in Brazil, with the USDA predicting total corn production in Brazil to reach 116.08 million tonnes.

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