North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Gains in up front canola months

WINNIPEG, Aug. 17 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were mostly higher on Tuesday, having backed well away from earlier highs. There were gains in the front months and declines in the more deferred positions.

A trader said there have been increases in canola prices due to the uncertainty surrounding this year’s crop. The only thing for certain is it will be far lower than the 20 million tonnes initially anticipated. There’s also a growing likelihood of the coming harvest coming well short of the 15 million to 17 million tonnes predicted by market participants.

Statistics Canada is scheduled to issue its survey-based report on principal field crops on Aug. 30, with its satellite-based report due out Sept. 30.

There were declines in Chicago soybeans and soyoil, as well as Malaysian palm oil. European rapeseed finished mixed, while Chicago soymeal nudged a little higher.

Temperatures on the Prairies will begin to pull back towards normal after today. That cooling is likely to generate rainfall for the region, with the greatest amounts forecast for the eastern end.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was weaker and supportive of canola. The loonie was at 79.16 U.S. cents compared to Monday’s close of 79.56.

There were 13,781 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 13,144 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,188 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 912.40 up 18.10
Jan 898.20 up 15.40
Mar 880.70 up 12.90
May 860.70 up 12.60

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended lower on Tuesday after holding on to gains for most of the session.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced two private sales of soybeans, with one sale for 198,000 tonnes to China, and the other sale for 132,000 to unknown destinations. Delivery for both will be during the upcoming marketing year.

The USDA issued its weekly crop progress report on Monday, which showed soybean conditions at 57 per cent good to excellent as of Aug. 15. That’s down three points from the previous week.

The eastern leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the soybean pod count per test area at about 1,195 in Ohio. The western leg placed the pod count in South Dakota at 997. The tour continues today in Indiana and Nebraska, with estimates for those states due this evening.

Barchart’s CmdtyView increased its forecast on U.S. soybean yields by about one per cent at nearly 51.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac.).

CORN futures were lower on Tuesday, as yield estimates held their own.

The Pro Farmer tour projected corn yields in Ohio to be approximately 185.1 bu/ac. and around 151.5 for South Dakota.

CmdtyView increased its call on U.S. corn yields by 1.8 per cent at a nation-wide average of 183.4 bu/ac.

U.S. corn conditions slipped back two points on the week at 62 per cent good to excellent.

AgRural estimated the Brazil second corn harvest at 70 per cent complete as of Monday. That put it seven points behind last year’s pace.

South Korea purchased 138,000 tonnes of corn, most likely from a South American source.

WHEAT futures were tumbled on Tuesday, due to profit-taking and harvest pressure.

The USDA reported spring wheat conditions remained at 11 per cent good to excellent, and the harvest advanced 20 points at 58 per cent complete. That’s 22 points above the five-year average.

SovEcon trimmed its projection of wheat production in Russia by about 0.25 per cent at 76.2 million tonnes.

The German wheat crop has been estimated to be 22.4 million tonnes.

The Western Producer

Tags: canola, North American Grain and Oilseed Review, ICE, canola futures