North American Grain and Oilseed Review: ‘Et tu soyoil?’

WINNIPEG, March 15 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were mostly lower this Ides of March, as Chicago soyoil and the Canadian dollar played Brutus and Cassius to canola’s Julius Caesar.

Soyoil gained strength during most of today’s session at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), only to turn lower in the last minutes and pulling down canola with it.

Although canola was often swingy today, it caught some traction for both the old crop and new crop months. Other than for the immediate May contract, the futures slipped back.

The Canadian dollar remained above 80 U.S. cents, which also weighed on values. The loonie was at 80.17, after closing Friday at 80.04.

Tightening canola supplies continued to press the need for price rationing, as the Canadian oilseed remained cheaper than other edible oils.

There were 15,905 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 29,593 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,752 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola May 802.90 up 1.80
Jul 750.30 dn 0.10
Nov 632.50 dn 0.70
Jan 634.70 dn 0.30

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were higher on Monday, following positive soybean export inspections.

The USDA issued its weekly export inspections report and for the week ended March 11, soybean shipments came to 518,789 tonnes. That’s a 12.9 per cent decline from the previous week. Year-to-fate soybean exports total 51.12 million tonnes and are 74.1 per cent ahead of those a year ago.

At mid-month, the market’s focus has shifted towards the 2021 planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) due out on March 31. Allendale Inc. released its projections and called for 90.3 million acres of soybeans, slightly higher than the 90 million the USDA announced at its Ag Outlook forum.

The monthly crush report from the National Oilseed Producers’ Association (NOPA), said there were nearly 155.2 million bushels of soybeans crushed in February. That’s under the low end of market expectations and the smallest amount crushed since September 2019. It’s believed the February cold snap reduced the amount of soybeans crushed. At 1.76 billion pounds, the month’s soyoil stocks also came in under trade guesses of 1.84 billion.

In South America, wet conditions in Brazil have continued to delay the soybean harvest and dry conditions in Argentina remained a threat to its soybean crop.

CORN futures were higher as well on Monday, also due to improved exports.

Corn export inspections total 2.20 million tonnes for a 31.8 per cent hike over the previous week. At 29.96 million tonnes, the year-to-date inspections are 87 per cent ahead of those a year ago.

Allendale has called for 92.8 million acres of corn, more than the USDA’s initial projection of 92 million.

The planting of corn in Brazil was still hampered by wet conditions. AgRural estimated that 75 per cent of seeding has been completed. Meanwhile, dry conditions posed a serious issue to corn in Argentina.

WHEAT futures were higher on Monday, following soybeans and corn.

Wheat export inspections amounted to 683,492 tonnes, a 41 per cent jump from the previous week. The year-to-date stood at 19.28 million tonnes, about 2.4 per cent less than this time last year.

Allendale’s wheat acreage projections came in at 46.4 million, higher than the USDA’s 45 million.

Precipitation this past weekend across parts of the U.S. Southern Plains will help alleviate dry conditions. Snow was in the forecast today for the Dakotas and the Upper Mississippi River Valley, with rain for the Eastern Corn Belt.

The planting of spring wheat was underway in Western Europe, while the winter wheat and barley crops in Ukraine were reported to be in excellent shape.

The Western Producer

Tags: canola, North American Grain and Oilseed Review, ICE, canola futures, Intercontinental Exchange