North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Erasing yesterday’s increases

Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower on Wednesday, as trading continued with losses from the overnight session.

Rumours of buying by China resulted in a quick upswing in canola prices yesterday.

Today, canola was pressured by losses in Chicago soybeans and soymeal, as well as those in Malaysian palm oil. Declines in global crude oil prices weighed on vegetable oil values.

Tempering further losses in canola were sharp upticks in European rapeseed and more moderate increases in Chicago soyoil.

Hot and dry weather on the Prairies this long weekend should see farmers make good harvest progress.

Statistics Canada reported that farm cash receipts for the first half of 2022 amounted to C$43.9 billion. That’s an increase of 14.6 per cent compared to the same time last year.

The Canadian dollar was lower at mid-afternoon as the loonie fell to 76.23 U.S. cents, compared to Tuesday’s close 76.48.

There were 23,221 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 26,724 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 17,204 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 835.40 dn 8.40
Jan 844.20 dn 7.60
Mar 851.40 dn 6.10
May 853.20 dn 4.70

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Wednesday, pressured by declines in global crude oil prices.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a private sale of 167,000 of soybeans to China.

There remains some skepticism in the trade regarding the accuracy of tomorrow’s USDA export sales report. Glitches in the new reporting model resulted in several errors in last week’s report.

Ahead of Thursday’s USDA fats and oils report, market expectations pegged the July soybean crush at 180.5 million bushels. If that holds, it would be a 8.5 per cent increase over the July 2021 crush. The market forecast soyoil stocks at 2.22 billion pounds.

A survey by Farm Futures pointed to a 0.8 per cent decline in U.S. soybean acres at 87.3 million.

Argentina reported that 51.6 per cent of the 2021/22 soybean crop has been sold. That made for a 62 per cent drop from last year.

CORN futures were also lower on Wednesday, due to spillover from soybeans.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said ethanol production for the week ended Aug. 26 averaged 970,000 barrels per day. The EIA said ethanol stocks dipped by just over one per cent at 23.53 million barrels.

The weather outlook for the U.S. Midwest called for warm, dry weather over the few weeks.

The Farm Futures survey found U.S. corn acres are expected to increase five per cent at 94.3 million.

Agritel projected a 20-year low in France’s corn crop, with 2022/23 production at 10.8 million tonnes due to drought.

WHEAT futures were higher on Wednesday, over the latest actions in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Just as Ukraine launched a counter offensive to retake the country’s south, Russian forces struck the grain silos at the port of Mykolaiv.

The Farm Futures survey pointed to a 3.9 per cent increase in U.S. wheat acres at 48.8 million.

Agritel pegged the 2022/23 wheat crop in France at 33.63 million tonnes. That would be 3.7 per cent below the five-year average.

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