North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola steps away from larger declines

Although canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) finished lower on Monday, they improved from larger losses earlier in the session.

With the United States markets closed for Memorial Day, there was no direction from the Chicago soy complex. However, pressure came from declines in European rapeseed, tempered somewhat from small gains in Malaysian palm oil. An upswing in global crude oil prices lent support to vegetable oils.

Scattered showers were forecast for drought-stricken southern Alberta today, while the wet eastern Prairies were expecting more rain. A spate of good weather over the last number of days aided planting progress.

The disparity in conditions has created a measure of uncertainty over this year’s canola crop. As well, tight old crop supplies continued to underpin values.

The Canadian dollar was stronger at mid-afternoon as the U.S. dollar weakened. The loonie climbed to 79.00 U.S. cents, compared to Friday’s close of 78.51.

There were 3,706 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 8,534 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,000 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 1,186.20 dn 1.60
Nov 1,073.40 dn 2.80
Jan 1,077.30 dn 3.50
Mar 1,075.00 dn 5.10

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was closed on Monday for Memorial Day in the United States. With the holiday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has postponed most of this week’s reports for one day, including the export inspections and crop progress reports normally released on Mondays.

The new marketing year for U.S. wheat is set to begin on Wednesday.

France reported on Friday that 99 per cent of the country’s corn crop was planted. It rated 91 per cent good to excellent, down two points from the previous week.

Due to dry conditions the French wheat crop lost four points, dropping to 69 per cent good to excellent. The ratings have dropped 20 points over the last three weeks.

Coceral forecast the European Union corn production for 2022/23 to come in just short of 66 million tonnes, down 1.8 from the previous year. With the weather improved in Spain, Coceral edged up EU soft wheat production to 143 million tonnes.

Strategie Grains pegged the 2022/23 EU sunflower crop at 10.9 million tonnes, for a five per cent increase from last year. Also, the consultancy estimated the incoming EU rapeseed harvest at 18.2 million tonnes, up seven per cent from 2021/22.

Ukraine reported that approximately 35.1 million acres have been planted so far this spring, marking a 22 per cent decline in area from last year.

Despite India banning wheat exports, due to lower than projected production, a number of countries have requested to purchase wheat from it. That includes neighboring Bangladesh as well as Egypt and Jamaica, as there is very little wheat being exported out of Ukraine.

Tags: crop, soy, Ukraine, futures, corn, losses, vegetable oils, soft wheat, canola, weather, Production, wheat, rapeseed, palm oil