North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola loses upticks again

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were mostly lower on Friday after making gains for much of the session. This marks the second time this week the Canadian oilseed lost its increases.

There was a sharp spike in the global crude oil prices following China’s announcement that it’s easing its Zero-COVID policy. The spillover led to a bounce in the Chicago soy complex, with more moderate upticks in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil.

That increase in crude plus a weakening United States dollar generated a surge in the Canadian dollar, which weighed on canola values. At mid-afternoon, the loonie climbed to 74.09 U.S. cents, compared to Thursday’s close of 72.73.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported a 61 per cent drop in canola exports for the week ended Oct. 30 at about 130,000 tonnes. However the year-to-date exports of 1.6 million tonnes remain well ahead of those a year ago.

There’s the prospect for snow or rain across much of the Prairies over the weekend. A system moving eastward is to bring precipitation to the region of which parts became quite dry this fall.

There were 43,678 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 33,552 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 32,136 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jan 898.40 up 1.50
Mar 895.30 dn 1.80
May 897.10 dn 3.90
Jul 897.10 dn 6.30

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Friday, getting spillover from the surge in crude oil prices.

Ahead of the next supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the trade predicted no change to the national soybean yield of 49.8 bushels per acre. However, the soybean carryout is expected to increase six per cent at 212 million bushels. The USDA is scheduled to release its report on Wednesday at 11 am CST.

In the USDA census data for September, soybean exports amounted to 2.12 million tonnes. That’s far below the 2020/21 record of 7.2 million tonnes. Soymeal exports were 828,128 tonnes and soyoil at 20,446 tonnes. When combined, the products rose 33.1 per cent from a year ago.

ANEC pegged Brazil soybean exports for October at 3.57 million tonnes, up 19.5 per cent from the previous October.

CORN futures were slightly higher on Friday, with gains tempered by the prospect of higher ending stocks.

Market projections hold the U.S. corn yield at 171.9 bu./ac. but have the carryover rising three per cent at 1.21 billion bushels.

Nutrien announced plans to increase its potash production 25 per cent by 2025.

The USDA attaché in South Africa projected that country’s 2021/22 corn harvest at 16 million tonnes, the third largest on record. The attaché pegged corn exports at three million tonnes.

China approved 100 facilities in Brazil to export corn to the country.

WHEAT futures were higher on Friday, following strong census data.

The USDA placed September wheat exports at 3.05 million tonnes. That’s a marketing year high and 32 per cent ahead of last September.

Rain is forecast for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

The trade put wheat ending stocks for October at 578 million bushels, up two million from September.

The current Black Sea export agreement is set to expire on Nov. 18.

The Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) reported wheat exports for the week ended Oct. 30 were 424,400 tonnes. That’s a drop of 20.5 per cent from last week. However, year-to-date wheat exports of nearly 4.63 million tonnes are 40.6 per cent ahead of a year ago.

Following a frost in Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced its call on the country’s wheat production by 7.9 per cent at 14 million tonnes. That’s slightly above the Rosario Grain Exchange’s projection of 13.7 million tonnes.

Tags: exports, corn, canola, prices, Oilseed, soybean, wheat, rapeseed, palm oil, futures, China