New ambitious plans of Kazakh Ag Ministry

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

Because of drought, heavy wheat crop losses were predicted in Kazakhstan in the 2020/21 season (like in 2019/20). However, the key grain growing regions received abundant August rainfall that replenished soil moisture. Reportedly, the soil in some areas was even too wet, causing kernels to blacken and germinate that could affect the grain quality, UkrAgroConsult reports.

On September 28, the Ag Ministry of Kazakhstan reported that farmers had harvested 15 Ml ha (95% complete). The current average yield increased by 12% from a year ago, to 1.24 MT/ha (1.11 MT/ha in 2019). As of the reporting date, the crop was at 18.6 MMT, or above the Ministry’s own estimate of 18 MMT. Therefore, a new target was set, at 20.5 MMT.

UkrAgroConsult considers the Ag Ministry’s new forecast of 20.5 MMT too ambitious. According to our estimates, grain production may be considerably lower.

We expect grain exports from Kazakhstan to be at roughly the same level as a year ago.

The main destinations for Kazakh exports include Central Asian countries, but official representatives of Kazakhstan have made active efforts in recent years to set up trade with China. 2020/21 MY will provide more opportunities because of the crop growth.

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