Mexico drought boosts demand for grain imports

Winter crop harvest in Mexico is well underway, but production forecasts have been severely impacted by extremely dry weather conditions, resulting in reduced planted acreage for both wheat and corn, as well as sharply lower yields.

Nearly all wheat acreage in Mexico is irrigated, and adequate water levels in dams are necessary to encourage planting between November and February and provide enough water for irrigation and maintain expected yields until harvest. But this season’s drought has ensured low water levels in reservoirs for crop irrigation.

Corn production has also been hurt by the multi-year drought, with USDA’s FAS forecasting total production in 2023-24 at 23.3 million tons, down 17% from the previous season’s record crop of 28.1 million tons.

Mexico has two corn crops, with about 70% of the crop produced in the summer cycle, which is planted from April through August and harvested from October through January. The balance of 30% is winter corn, which is planted in November, December and January and harvested from April through July.

The lower production estimate reflects official government data that showed lower planted and harvested acreage due to low early season soil moisture and inadequate irrigation water supply, crop damage from pests and diseases, and lower than expected yields in much of the country.

The weather in southern Mexico since early January is also a major concern for local coffee producers. Most of them estimate a possible 30% drop in bean production. Already now the lack of rain negatively affects 80% of coffee plantations.

Studies show that at least 170 thousand hectares of agricultural areas may feel the effects of drought.

Tags: grain, Mexico