MARS Agency lowered its forecast for corn and sunseed yields in the EU due to drought

Amid warm and dry weather in early autumn, which exacerbated the drought in the southeast of the EU, MARS lowered its forecast for corn yields in the EU from 7.26 to 7.13 t/ha, which is 5% below the 5-year average, but 21% higher than in the dry 2022. The sunseed yield forecast has been lowered from 2.2 to 2.1 t/ha, which is 5% below the 5-year average.

The downgrade is due to the deterioration of spring harvests in Hungary, Romania, Greece and Bulgaria. The drought prevented the sowing of rapeseed in the southeast of the EU, so some fields may be re-sown. Grain sowing may also be hampered if there is no rain in the near future. In the North of the EU, warm autumn weather helped crops to ripen after heavy summer rainfall and facilitated sowing of winter rape and grains.

The lower harvest forecasts for the EU will give Ukrainian exporters a chance to increase supplies of agricultural products to this destination.

According to the European Commission, in 2023/24 MY corn imports to the EU decreased by 40% to 5.067 mln tonnes compared to the same period of the previous season, including 2.248 mln tonnes supplied by Brazil, 2.211 mln tonnes – by Ukraine and 0.22 mln tonnes – by Canada. Spain purchased 2.104 mln tons of corn, the Netherlands – 0.675 mln tons, Italy – 0.617 mln tons.

The November corn futures on the stock exchange in Paris yesterday fell another 1.75 €/t to 203,5 €/t or 215,8 $/t (-3.7% for the month, -48% for the year).

In the Northern hemisphere weather contributes to the active harvesting of corn, which increases supply and puts pressure on prices.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of October 20, Ukraine harvested 39.2 million tons of grain, including 9.3 million tons of corn.

Purchase prices for corn for delivery to the Danube or Black Sea ports are only $120-135/t, which does not help to boost supplies. Exports through the western borders to the EU are limited by logistical problems (queues of trucks of 12-16 days) and low demand prices from buyers.

Tags: corn, EU, sunseed, crop forecast