Malted barley will be enough for beer and whiskey production, despite the reduction of the harvest in 2023/24 MY

In the new report, RMI Analytics experts noted that the harvested malt barley will be enough to meet the needs of beer and whiskey producers, despite the reduction of the harvest in 2023, as the demand for beer will also significantly decrease compared to 2022.

The global barley production in 2023/24 MY decreased by almost 10 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, while the ending stocks decreased by only 2.2% due to the reduction of consumption.

The supply of quality malted barley will meet the needs of brewers and whiskey producers until the 2024 harvest. Amid high yields from 2019 to 2022, the demand for barley has fallen to a 10-year low. Thus, barley exports from Europe in 2023 decreased by 10% compared to 2022, and by 4% compared to 2021. Therefore, there is a risk that in 2024 farmers will reduce the barley planting areas.

Analysts expect the downward trend in malt barley prices to continue in the near future. In 2023, the premium for malt quality reached 40-60 €/t, but the prices for the 2024 harvest will be much lower.

Prospects for the 2024 harvest in Europe are quite optimistic, as temperatures in winter were above normal. At the same time, sowing of spring barley may be delayed due to heavy rainfall.

In Ukraine, the demand for malting barley also declined sharply amid a decline in export demand for malt and malt barley, which led to the shutdown of the Slavuta Malt Plant for repairs. Other malting plants almost stopped accepting malting barley, which resulted in its prices falling from 6000-7000 UAH/t FCA – farm at the beginning of the season to 5000-5500 UAH/t FCA in February, which is almost equal to the level of feed barley prices.

Significant stocks of malting barley at processors and uncertainty about malt sales in the new season limit the volume of purchases, which will lead to a decrease in premiums for malting barley to the minimum, unless there are any quality problems.

Tags: malting barley, barley