Maize prices in Black Sea ports eased after growth linked to resumption of purchases

Ukraine’s corn harvest increases supply and increases pressure on prices, even as purchases from Black Sea ports pick up.

As of October 13, Ukraine harvested 5.846 million tons of corn from 884.4 thousand hectares or 22% with a yield of 6.61 tons/ha. Thanks to the dry and warm weather, the moisture content of the grain is 15-18%, which will reduce drying costs and improve the quality of corn in the new season.

The pace of corn exports remains low, and since July 1, only 2.94 million tons (5.76 million tons last year) have been shipped, of which 255,000 tons were shipped in October (916,000 tons in October 2022).

Against the background of the successful loading of the first ships in the Black Sea ports, traders are activating ship freight and resuming the purchase and reception of corn in the Black Sea ports.

Purchase prices at Black Sea ports initially stood at $125-130/t, as did Danube ports, but fell to $105-115/t during the week under pressure from increased supply, while prices at Danube ports rose amid tighter supplies and stronger fight against companies that buy for cash.

The global market is under pressure from an increase in the supply of Brazilian and American corn. Therefore, December corn futures in Chicago fell during the week, although yesterday they rose to $193.7/t (+3.3% for the month) on the data about the increase in ethanol production.

November corn futures in Paris rose 2.7% yesterday to €205.25/t or $216.2/t (-1.9% on the month), despite low EU import rates and forecasts of increased production in France.

In 2023/24, the EU imported only 5.07 million tons of corn, which is 40% lower than last year, although the USDA forecasts imports at 24 million tons. Almost 2.25 million tons, or 44.4% of this volume, came from Brazil , and 2.2 million tons or 43.6% – from Ukraine.

The blocking of supplies from Ukraine to neighboring EU countries is putting pressure on intra-EU prices, which are rising against the backdrop of curbs on sales by European traders and a shortage of Ukrainian corn due to logistics problems.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, Brazil, EU, prices