Low export rates increase pressure on wheat prices

World wheat prices after a sharp jump yesterday fell against the background of profit fixing by traders. In addition, quotes are under pressure from fundamental factors in the form of approaching harvesting in Argentina and Australia and increasing forecasts for global corn production.

Rabobank experts estimate wheat production in Australia in my 2020/21 at 31.9 million tons, which is 4% lower than last year’s harvest, but 35% higher than the average 5-year figure. While the USDA estimates the harvest at 31.5 million tons.

Argentina has started harvesting wheat, the yield of which may decrease due to dry weather.

Export sales of wheat from the United States for the week fell by 37% to 362.3 thousand tons, and actual exports to the lowest since the beginning of the season 160 thousand tons, which is lower than market expectations. In total, 8.37 million tons of wheat were exported in my 2021/22, which is 28% lower than last year’s pace.

December US futures fell:

• by 2 2.94 / ton to Чикаго 272.4/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 4 4.41 / ton to H 274.8/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1 1.56/ton to.358 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Reducing the intensity of precipitation in France has accelerated sowing, which puts pressure on prices.

December wheat futures on Paris ‘ Euronext fell by €1.75/ton to €276.5/ton or € 321.5 / ton.

In Ukrainian ports, purchase prices remain at the level of 8850-8950 UAH/t or 2 295-300/t for food wheat and 8100-8400 UAH/t or.270-275/t for feed wheat against the background of high export demand. As of October 20, Ukraine exported only 11.05 million tons of wheat in my 2021/22, which is 10% faster than last year’s pace, although the export forecast was increased to 23.5-24 million tons against 16.7 million tons last year.

December Black Sea wheat futures at Chicago SWOT hit a record $333/ton on October 20, but fell to.331.75/ton yesterday.

Russian wheat prices supported the results of the tender in Turkey, where the state agency TMO purchased 300 thousand tons of wheat for delivery on December 10-31 at an average price of 3 351.87/ton C&F, which is 2 20/ton higher than the purchase price of the previous tender.

As of October 14, Russia exported only 11.1 million tons of wheat in my 2021/22, which is 18% lower than last year’s pace.

GrainTrade

Tags: USA, wheat price