La Nina weather 66% likely to emerge in Sept-Nov

There is a 66% chance of the La Nina weather pattern, characterized by cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, emerging during September-November, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.

The neutral phase between La Nina and El Nino weather patterns is expected to continue for several months, with a 74% chance of La Nina during November-January, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

La Niña, a climatic phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is associated with both floods and droughts affecting global agriculture, and higher Caribbean hurricane activity.

The cycle between El Nino, La Nina, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years.

El Nino is a natural warming of eastern and central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, while La Nina is characterized by colder temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region.

Experts have said Latin America and the Caribbean should brace for the arrival of La Nina.

India is set to receive monsoon rainfall that is above the average as a La Nina weather pattern forms in August and September, promising to boost farm output and growth in Asia’s third-biggest economy.

“A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño,” David Oxley, head of climate economics at Capital Economics said.

“Changes to the weather typically associated with La Niña in South America could affect the production of key agricultural commodities such as soybeans, corn, coffee and sugar for which the region is a key source of global supply.”

“If a strong La Niña system eventuates, we expect it would raise supply risks for oil, natural gas, coal and iron ore,” analysts at ANZ said.

Tags: weather forecasts