Kazakhstan: what’s going on in 2022/23 season and harvest forecast for 2023

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

Total grain production in  Kazakhstan is 22 M mt (+34% up compared to 2021), including:

• wheat: 16.4 M mt (+39% y/y),
• barley: 3.3 M mt (+38%).

In September-February of 2022/23, wheat exports exceeded 4 M mt (+19% yoy), this is the record since 2011/12 MY. Key export destinations did not changed:

• Uzbekistan: +31%,
• Tajikistan: +28%,
• Afghanistan: +57%.

Shipments to China increased significantly (to 24.5 K mt, 100% more than in the 2021/22 season). The Minister of Trade and Integration Kazakhstan announced plans to increase wheat exports to China to 1 M mt per year.

Barley exports in September 2022-February 2023 amounted to 644 K mt (about 185 K mt). All importing countries increased demand for the barley:

• Iran: by 6 times,
• China: 8 times,
• Afghanistan: 4 times,
• Tajikistan: by 2 times.

The significant shipments increase has given us reason to revise upward previous estimate of barley exports from Kazakhstan by 50 K mt to 850 K mt (2022/23).

Flour production increased to 2.25 M mt (+5% y-o-y) with wheat flour exports in September 2022-February 2023 amounted to 1.14 M mt (+32% from 2021/22 MY), mainly due to growing demand from Afghanistan (up 44%).

The weather in winter before start of the spring crops sowing  was much better than last year, except for drought in some winter wheat growing regions. However, the winter wheat share usually does not exceed 5-7% of the total harvest.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan, the total planted area in 2023 is expected to increase by 0.1 M ha. UkrAgroConsult will monitor the actually planted areas. In 2022 the Ministry expected a reduction of the total grain area by 400 K ha, but in fact the 2022 area expanded by 100 K ha.

UkrAgroConsult expects the grain area in Kazakhstan in 2023 may indeed increase, but most likely wheat area may decrease. UkrAgroConsult core scenario provides for wheat area reduction by 200 K ha in 2023 compared to 2022 due to the following factors:

1. Strong competition from Russian origin wheat in all major Central Asian markets: Russian wheat, even including delivery costs, is often cheaper than Kazakh wheat.

2. Growth of “gray” imports of wheat from Russia, mainly by trucks: local experts estimate the monthly illegal imports at 370 K mt of wheat. To protect domestic farmers, Kazakhstan authorities intend to ban the import of Russian wheat by trucks from April 10-12.

3. Logistics problems: lack of railway cars and locomotives, queues at the borders.

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Tags: Kazakhstan, export, barley, Tajikistan, wheat, flour, supply and demand balance, Afghanistan, sowing, Iran, crop forecast, China