ISO raises forecast for 2023/24 global sugar deficit

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Wednesday raised its forecast for the size of an anticipated global sugar deficit in the current 2023/24 season.

The inter-governmental body’s quarterly report projected a global deficit of 689,000 metric tons for 2023/24 (October/September) compared with a deficit of 335,000 tons forecast in its last update in November 2023.

A Reuters poll of analysts and traders this month gave a median forecast of a small surplus of 500,000 tons in the 2023/24 season.

Global production in 2023/24 was seen at 179.7 million tons, down from a previous projection of 179.9 million tons, with a modest upward revision to consumption expectations to 180.4 million tons from 180.2 million tons.

The ISO raised its forecast for Brazilian production in 2023/24 to 44.52 million tons from 43.07 million tons but cut its outlook for Thailand to 8.24 million tons from 9.48 million tons.

“Our second consecutive upward revision in Brazil’s production remains the main factor for maintaining our neutral price view,” the report said, noting a bullish bias to its price view.

The ISO also estimated that there was a global surplus of 308,000 tons in the 2022/23 season.

Tags: prices, sugar, crop forecast