Is there a room for Ukrainian rapeseed in the EU markets? 2023/24

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

The approaching of new rapeseed harvest, the grain corridor uncertainties and developing EU policy on the imports bans of agricultural products from Ukraine makes us once again return to the analysis of rapeseed market and prospects for 2023/24 MY. Now UkrAgroConsult focuses on the European importers as the key buyers of Ukrainian rapeseed and global competitors.

EU countries

In May the European agency MARS forecast for 2023

– rapeseed yield in Europe was increased to 3.34 t/ha (3.31 t/ha – in April report, 3.33 t/ha – in 2022);

– the moisture content is at the favorable levels for this period, except for the Iberian Peninsula;

– the rapeseed area in the EU increased for the fourth consecutive year

– the forecast of rapeseed harvest +3.3% by 2022

-top rapeseed producing countries:

• France,
• Germany,
• Poland,

At the same time in 2022/23 all these countries were the biggest importers of Ukrainian rapeseed.

forecast of rapeseed harvest in 2023 by country:

• France (+0.7% compared with 2022);
• Germany (+5.4%);
• Poland (-7.7%);
• Romania (+33.6%).

In the 2022/23 season, Ukrainian rapeseed exports faced considerable shift, with significant growth in shipments to Romania and Poland, while exports decreased to Germany, Belgium and France.

This shifts did not lead to significant changes in commodity flows within Europe, as the largest European rapeseed oil producers, such as Germany, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic, remain the end consumers.

However, carry-over rapeseed stocks for 2023/24 season increased, the stocks are expected to double compared to the previous year and reach the highest level in the past four seasons.

Ukraine rapeseed exports to the EU, 2023/24, forecast

The duty-free trade regime between Ukraine and the EU has been extended for another year (until June 2024) expanding the trend to localization of supply chains;

The ban on rapeseed imports to five Eastern European countries (Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia) is set to expire on June 5. Considering the forecasted increase in the EU production and carry-over stocks, a discussion about extending the ban until December 31, 2023 to protect the EU’s domestic market might be rather influential;

Mutual interest between Ukraine and the EU in rapeseed trade is evident, indicating that the EU market will require Ukrainian rapeseed regardless. Therefore, positive signals and news can be expected from the EU.

At the time of writing, The European Commission extended the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain to five EU countries until September 15.

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Tags: supply and demand balance, Hungary, Netherlands, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Romania, restrictions, EU, crop forecast, France, Poland, rapeseed, Germany