Iran refuses Kazakh grain

Kazakhstan is losing markets for grain. Iran has officially refused to buy grain from Kazakhstan this year. Uzbekistan will also reduce the volume of imports. Afghanistan will do the same, said in an interview with the agency “APK News” official representative of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan Yevgeny Karabanov.

In the conversation, the interlocutor of the agency mentioned that at this time analysts are making rosy forecasts about the record volume of harvest, which, allegedly, will be collected this season in Kazakhstan. According to E. Karabanov, such optimistic forecasts and prospects make the market very nervous.

“Many importers are beginning to adjust their plans for purchase and decide to work “from wheels”, without stock, that is, to buy only for a week to ten days. And this is worse for our seller. They will buy less and very cautiously, they will try to reduce prices. The situation may still change for the worse, and these forecasts will settle in people’s heads,” said Evgeny Karabanov.

Uzbekistan had a very good harvest. Afghanistan, too.

“A big harvest brings big problems. With harvesting, with storage, with realization. We have not added any additional markets. Yes, China has gone, but we do not have Iran. Iran has officially announced that this year it will not buy from Kazakhstan. They have their own good harvest. They will not buy wheat at all. Uzbekistan will reduce purchases. Afghanistan will do the same, due to the fact that they import cheap Russian flour and because Pakistan also has a good harvest and now it is going to export about 3.5 million tons of wheat and flour. That is, southern Afghanistan will buy Pakistani flour. Accordingly, our markets have shrunk in terms of volume. And even if we “rock” China, at best, the market volume will be brought to the state it was last year. This is the maximum. We have no additional markets”, – explained our interlocutor.

Accordingly, the price of Kazakh grain will decline.

Meanwhile, a good harvest is also expected in Russia’s border regions – Trans-Urals, Siberia and Altai. Russian grain will once again enter Kazakhstan’s market.

“But everything will depend on what we harvest, what quantity and quality. In general, I believe that Russian grain will again influence our demand and our price. But this is a given,” said a representative of the Grain Union.

Many traders have repeatedly expressed the view that it is necessary to introduce duties on imports of Russian grain. However, explained Evgeny Karabanov, this is impossible.

Many traders have repeatedly expressed the view that it is necessary to introduce duties on imports of Russian grain. However, Yevgeny Karabanov explained, this is impossible.

“For this purpose it is necessary to withdraw from the EurAsEC. According to the agreement, there are no duties within this union. They cannot be introduced, from the word go. As well as a complete ban. This will be extremely negative. Russia will perceive it that way. But, by the way, it should be said that they were the first to open this “Pandora’s box” when they introduced a ban on exports to Kazakhstan in 2021. They were the first to go this way, and we are reaping the benefits. But here we need to realize that these are more political elements. Most likely, Kazakhstan will not go for such measures. Perhaps they will squat grain. But it is necessary to deal with the recipients of Russian grain. First it is necessary to sort out inside, and then make external movements. The Ministry of Agriculture should work out all these issues and determine the quota. For example, for each certain percentage of its actual load”, – the expert expressed his opinion.

Tags: grain, wheat, Afghanistan, restrictions, Iran, Russia, China, Kazakhstan