Indonesia’s wheat imports to rebound in 2023-24

Indonesia’s wheat imports are expected to rebound in 2023-24, assuming an improved global economy, population growth and increasing demand from the upcoming general election, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Imports are estimated at 10.5 million tonnes, up from 9.446 million tonnes in 2022-23. A global economic slowdown and depressed purchasing power in the domestic market pushed down demand for wheat products in 2022-23, the FAS said.

Total food consumption in 2022-23 will decrease 3.4% to 8.5 million tonnes of wheat equivalent. With the 2024 election, demand for wheat flour-based food products is expected to increase. Wheat consumption for 2023-24 is estimated at 8.6 million tonnes of wheat equivalent.

Wheat also is largely consumed in Indonesia as a feed ingredient. The feed mills association forecast that feed production in 2024 will increase by 5% to 22.4 million tonnes from 21.3 million tonnes produced in 2023.

As feed mills continue to include wheat as one of the energy sources in feed formulation, wheat consumption for feed in 2024 is forecast to increase to 1.2 million tonnes compared with 1.1 million tonnes in 2023.

With an earlier onset of the dry season and dryer weather caused by El Niño, Indonesia’s paddy production is estimated to decrease 2.05% to 53.63 million tonnes in 2022-23, the FAS said.

It is likely that El Niño effect will still linger and lead to lower paddy production in 2023-24. Assuming that the effects of El Niño will subside before the beginning of the second crop cycle of 2023-24, harvested area is forecast to marginally rebound.

Tags: Indonesia, wheat, imports