India’s pulses market hots up after arrival of new tur, early chana crops

With the arrival of the new tur and chana crops in central and western India, the government has its finger on India’s pulse(s) market.

Trade and market sources say tur, masoor, and urad will trade above their minimum support price (MSP) in short to medium term, even as moong remains below MSP.

Chana, sown primarily in North India, is likely to cross the MSP of Rs 5,335 per quintal only in the medium term. Presently, chana is trading below the MSP.

The MSP of tur and urad is Rs 6,600 per quintal; masur’s Rs 6,000 per quintal. The MSP of moong is Rs 7,755 per quintal. That of chana’s Rs 5,335 per quintal.

The prices are for the 2022-23 (July-June) and 2023-24 (April-March) crop marketing seasons.

“Chana output, according to industry information, is expected to be the same as last year at about 9.5 million tonnes (mt), although there could be some drop in area. The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India, as indicated by market intelligence, has about 2.5-2.8 mt of chana in its inventory, of which it is planning to give roughly 1.5 mt to states for creating buffer stocks at a discount,” says Rahul Chauhan, commodity analyst, IndiaGrain (iGrain).

He expects a bullish trend in chana from next year onwards.

If Madhya Pradesh (MP) abolishes the mandi tax on pulses purchased from other states, he expects good demand for the state’s millers.

“By the end of this financial year, about 90,000 tonnes (of chana) is expected to be imported,” he adds.

Indrajit Paul, senior manager (commodity research), Origo Commodities (Origo), says chana acreage this rabi season, in line with his ground report, may fall 7-8 per cent since farmers have shifted to other remunerative crops like wheat and mustard.

“The drop in acreage will come from states like MP, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and Rajasthan, while in Maharashtra, acreages will increase from the previous year,” says Paul.

According to official data (until December 23), chana has been sown across 10.33 million hectares. This is 0.68 per cent more than the same period last year.

Paul says the prices of chana will trade sideways in the short term in the price band of Rs 5,050-5,250 per quintal.

Chauhan of iGrain observes that output of tur this year is expected to be about 3.2-3.4 mt. This is less than last year due to inclement weather and rains in Karnataka and Maharashtra in the latter half of the season.

The Centre in its first Advance Estimates has gauged the production of tur this kharif season at 3.89 mt. This is 10.36 per cent less than the same period last year.

Yet the availability of tur will be smooth this year, mainly due to imports from Africa and Myanmar, along with the domestic crop.

While prices will feel the squeeze in the short term, they will increase after April.

“Prices of tur will trade sideways to weak in the short term in the price band of Rs 7,400 –7,700 per quintal. The demand remains weak for tur dal. The new crop arrivals have started in Karnataka and Maharashtra,” says Paul.

Chauhan says the production of urad is expected to be about 2.4 mt this financial year. Its consumption is likely to be 3 mt. Imports could be more than 0.5 mt, compared to the previous financial year’s 610,000 tonnes.

He says prices in the domestic market are closer to the MSP and will remain so.

“Since the past three seasons, the urad crop has been impacted by unfavourable weather. Without a substantial jump in domestic production, it is unfeasible to meet domestic demand. Hence, the prices of urad will mostly hinge on the imported market,” says Chauhan.

Paul says the prices of urad will trade sideways in the short term in the price band of Rs 6,850-7,150 per quintal.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare’s sowing data, the sowing of urad in the rabi season is complete across 520,000 hectares until now. This is 5 per cent more than the same period last year.

According to Origo, masoor prices will trade sideways to weak in the short term in the price band of Rs 6,250-6,550 per quintal. An increase in the sowing of masoor amid good imports will keep prices under pressure.

According to the latest sowing report from the agriculture ministry, masoor has been sown across 1.76 million hectares (until December 23). This is 8.6 per cent more than the same period last year.

The demand for masoor is expected to be bearish, says the commodity brokerage.

Prices of moong, says Origo, will trade sideways in the short term and possibly in the price band of Rs 6,600-7,000 per quintal.

Chauhan says the prices of masoor have softened in the past month and a half by Rs 100-1,500 per quintal ahead of the new crop arrival in February 2023. After arrival, the prices may come under pressure.

He says the output of masoor this financial year is expected to be 1.4 mt, while demand is 2.5 mt.

In the past three years, the production of moong has risen. Moong is a short-duration crop. In India, it is cultivated in different states almost all through the year.

Its prices were better last month but are under pressure now since the demand for pulses drops in the winter months.

The Centre has extended the deadline for free imports of tur and urad up to March 2024 and that of refined palm oil and palmolein oil and other refined oils for an indefinite period, in an apparent bid to control inflation and ensure steady supply for domestic consumers. Prior to Wednesday’s order, imports of tur and urad were free till March 2023, while those of refined palm oil and palmolein oil were free until December 2022.

Tags: urad, India, masoor, acreage, pulses, output, Market, moong, chana, domestic market, demand, price, kharif season, crops, rabi season, Production