India’s grain production remains strong

Led by rice and wheat, India’s grain production for Indian crop year (ICY) 2023-24 (July-June) is projected to be 328.85 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s record of 329.69 million tonnes, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare released its third advance estimate for major crops for 2023-2024 on June 4, with near-record production anticipated despite a below normal and uneven 2023 southwest monsoon, the FAS said. The outlook is largely owing to record production of rice and wheat, while production of corn, other coarse grains and pulses is estimated lower than last year.

Based on the latest official estimate, wheat production in marketing year 2024-25, which begins in November, is estimated by the FAS at 113 million tonnes from 31.2 million hectares, up from 110.5 million tonnes in 2023-24. Benefiting from a resurgent monsoon in late June, rice production for 2024-25 is forecast at 138 million tonnes from 48.5 million hectares, an increase of 1 million tonnes year-on-year.

On June 24, the government of India imposed stock limits on wheat for retailers, traders and processors effective until March 31, 2025. Marketing year 2024-25 wheat ending stocks were revised down to 7.5 million tonnes on lower-than-expected government wheat procurement. Government-held wheat stocks on June 1 were estimated at 29.9 million tonnes, compared with 31.4 million at the same time last year.

“Despite the continued export ban on wheat and wheat products and consequent absence of major purchase by traders/exporters during the peak harvest/marketing season (April-June), domestic prices have been above the minimum support price (MSP) and last year’s price level suggesting tight domestic supplies,” the FAS said. “Food inflation concerns have forced the government to re-impose stocks limits on wheat to be held by private trade and processors.”

The FAS 2023-24 corn production estimate was revised lower to 35.7 million tonnes from 10.7 million hectares. Planting for 2024-25 is ahead of schedule, and the crop is seen reaching 37.5 million tonnes from 11 million hectares.

Tags: wheat, India, crop forecast