India to reduce vegetable oil imports in MY 2023/24

The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) expects vegetable oil imports to be 16.2 million tons during the 2023-24 (October-September) season against 17.06 million tons in 2022-23.

Presenting the report at the UOB Kay Hian Palm Oil Outlook seminar in Kuala Lumpur, Sudhakar Desai, chief executive officer of Emami Agrotech Ltd and president of IVPA, said the share of palm oil in total imports is expected to decline from 60% in 2022-23 to 54%.

Stating that India had drastically reduced soybean oil imports in January-March due to lack of hedging instrument, he said it is expected to increase in April-September as many players have tried to capture the negative forward spread between soybean oil and palm oil. If the soybean to palm oil ratio remains zero for longer, the share of palm oil may come down to 50%.

The share of soft oils in consumption is expected to increase due to narrow spreads, he said. Supply chain disruptions such as the Red Sea issue and the expectation of good soybean and rapeseed harvests in India have slowed soybean oil imports in the past few months. This has helped palm oil prices to remain resilient.

Desai estimated crude palm oil (CPO) price forecast at $900-940 per ton (c&f) for April-June and $840-900 per ton (c&f) for July-September. He estimated soybean oil at $900-960 per ton (c&f) for April-September. As for sunflower oil, he estimated $890-940 per ton (c&f) for April-June and $900-950 per ton (c&f) for July-September.

Tags: rapeseed, palm oil, imports, sunflower oil, soybean oil, India