India plans to harvest a record wheat crop and is actively buying it for the state reserve

Experts of the Indian Barley and Wheat Research Institute of Karnal predict that in the current season the country will harvest a record 114 mln tons of wheat.

This will be facilitated by good weather conditions, increase in sowing areas by 1 mln ha to 34 mln ha, 60% of which will be sown with high-yielding and climate-resistant varieties (DBW 296, DBW 327, DBW 332, DBW 303, DBW 187, DBW 222, WH1270 and PBW 771), extended winter period and absence of pests and diseases.

Currently, the average wheat yield is 3.4-3.5 t/ha, and if this figure does not decrease, the total production may reach even 119 mln tons, experts believe.

As a reminder, in 2021, the wheat harvest in India amounted to 109.59 mln tonnes, in 2022 it decreased to 107.74 mln tonnes due to the heat, and in 2023 it reached the record 110.55 mln tonnes. The country’s government forecasts that in 2024 the harvest will reach 114 mln tons.

USDA experts in the April balance of supply and demand left the forecast of wheat production in India in 2024/25 MY at 110.55 mln tonnes (104 mln tonnes last year), but raised the consumption forecast from 111 to 113 mln tonnes (108.7 mln tonnes last year). At the same time, they do not forecast wheat exports from the country, although last year it reached 5.3 million tons. If the wheat harvest really increases, the stocks will not decrease, and the export potential will be quite high.

According to the FCI, the Indian government has already purchased 19.61 mln tons of local wheat for the state reserve, while the minimum requirement is 18.4 mln tons. The pace of purchases is 10% lower than last year due to the 10-day delay in harvesting in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

Thus, in Punjab, where a record 13 mln tons of wheat is expected to be harvested, 9 mln tons have already been purchased for reserves, in Haryana – 6.12 mln tons out of the planned 7 mln tons, in Madhya Pradesh – 3.46 mln tons out of 8 mln tons.

In general, in 2024/25 MY the government plans to purchase 30-31 mln tonnes of wheat to the state reserves, while in 2023/24 MY it purchased 26.2 mln tonnes of the grain.

Tags: wheat, India