India headed for driest August in over 100 years, summer crops at risk

India is heading for its driest August in more than a century, with scant rainfall likely to persist across large areas, partly because of the El Nino weather pattern, two weather department officials told Reuters on Friday.

August rainfall, expected to be the lowest since records began in 1901, could dent yields of summer-sown crops, from rice to soybeans, boosting prices and overall food inflation, which jumped in July to the highest since January 2020.

The monsoon, vital for the $3-trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain India needs to water farms and refill reservoirs and aquifers.

“The monsoon is not reviving as we had expected,” said a senior official of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who sought anonymity as the matter is a sensitive one.

“We are going to end the month with a significant deficit in the southern, western, and central parts.”

India is on course to receive an average of less than 180 mm (7 inches) of rainfall this month, he added, based on rains so far and expectations for the rest of the month.

The weather authorities are expected to announce August totals of rainfall and the forecast for September on Aug. 31 or Sept. 1.

India received just 90.7 mm (3.6 inches) in the first 17 days of August, nearly 40% lower than the normal. The month’s normal average is 254.9 mm (10 inches), he said.

Earlier, the IMD had anticipated a rainfall deficit of up to 8% in August. The lowest August rainfall on record was in 2005, with 191.2 mm (7.5 inches).

Tags: crop condition, India, drought