In March, Ukraine exported the largest monthly volume of grain since the war

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine exported 5.34 mln tonnes of grain in March, which is 150 thsd tonnes more than in February 2023 and the highest monthly export volume during the hot phase of the war since February 2022. However, the total grain exports in 2022/23 MY are 17% lower than last year and amount to 37.4 mln tonnes. As a reminder, in March 2022, the grain exports were paralyzed and amounted to only 200 thsd tonnes.

The main reason for the exports revival in March was the formal termination of the grain agreement, so exporters tried to export the purchased volumes of grain as soon as possible. After the agreement is extended (it is not yet clear whether for 60 or 120 days), Ukrainian grain will be actively exported at least until mid-May.

As before, corn was the main export item in March, with exports increasing to 3.6 mln tonnes (3.3 mln tonnes in February), and totaling 22.2 mln tonnes in the season, up 1.6 mln tonnes year-on-year. In 2020/21 MY, the company exported 23.2 mln tonnes of corn, and in 2021/22 MY – 23.4 mln tonnes.

Taking into account the harvest of about 27 mln tonnes of corn in 2022 and initial stocks of 11-12 mln tonnes, Ukraine can export 30-31 mln tonnes of the grain in 2022/23 MY, i.e. another 8-9 mln tonnes by the end of the season.

Wheat exports in March decreased compared to February to 1.55 mln tonnes, and totaled 12.9 mln tonnes in the season, which is 5.6 mln tonnes less than last year. In the next three months, Ukraine may export another 3-4 million tons of wheat, but the prospects for the next season do not look too optimistic.

According to the State Customs Service, in 2022/23 MY, as of March 31, Ukraine exported 37.639 mln tonnes of grains and pulses (including 5.341 mln tonnes in March), including

• wheat – 12.88 mln tonnes (18.399 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY)
• barley – 2.276 mln tonnes (5.643 mln tonnes),
• rye – 17.5 thsd tonnes (161.9 thsd tonnes),
• corn – 22.163 mln tonnes (20.439 mln tonnes).

Last year, as of March 31, the exports of grains amounted to 44.943 mln tonnes, of which 1.428 mln tonnes were shipped in March.

In addition, since the beginning of the season, Ukraine has exported 154 thsd tonnes of flour, including 111.2 thsd tonnes of wheat, while last year these figures were 91.2 and 66.9 thsd tonnes, respectively.

Tags: wheat, rye, Ukraine, corn, export, grain, barley