In a month, the European Commission may extend the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain to 5 Eastern European countries — an opinion

Uncertainty with the import of Ukrainian agricultural products to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria remains, according to Oleg Nivyevskyi, head of the Center for Food and Land Use Research of the Kyiv School of Economics.

“Although the decision was declared for one month, the European Commission wrote in black and white that it is ready to continue. And will continue, I think. Because in a month there will be a new season, new volumes of exports and the logistics of these countries will not be better, only worse. By the way, if they really remove it in a month, it will be illogical and will multiply by zero all the arguments why they are introducing this ban now,” comments the expert.

He added that such a decision is a blow to Ukraine. Because for these five countries, the agricultural sector is only up to 2-5% of GDP, and for Ukraine, the agricultural sector is now one of the engines of the economy.

“This is Russia’s signal to continue slowing down the “grain corridor”, which should probably be expected,” Oleg Nivyevskyi suggests.

Among the positive sides, he singled out the following:

• “EC admits that partners’ accusations that we are undercutting their prices are unfounded (not mentioned in the release)”;
• “the main problem is logistics costs/problems and congested warehouses. But there is no data or analytical note… Well, it was not Ukrainian companies that bought and built storage facilities”;
• “if it works, the ban on wheat, corn, sunflower and canola and other items by the rebels will be lifted. There will be transit through 5 km, there will also be imports to other EU countries.”

However, the expert emphasizes, there is nothing in the text of the decision about the fact that the countries acted badly and hit the unity of the EU hard.

As a reminder, on May 2, the European Commission adopted a decision to ban the import of Ukrainian agricultural products (wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds) until June 5.

Tags: Ukraine, EU