IGC: World total grains forecast keeps trending lower

Global total grains production, consumption, ending stocks and trade are projected to decline in marketing year 2022-23, according to the latest International Grains Council (IGC) Grain Market Report.

The report, released on Nov. 17, said world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output is expected to contract by 33 million tonnes in 2022-23, to 2.255 billion tonnes (down 1%), with smaller maize (down 53 million) and sorghum (down 1 million) crops more than outstripping increases for wheat (up 10 million), barley (up 6 million), oats (up 2 million) and other coarse grains (up 3 million).

At 2.272 billion tonnes, global consumption is forecast 1% lower year-on-year, marking the first annual contraction since 2015-16, linked primarily to reduced feed and industrial uptake.

A sixth successive year-on-year drawdown of world grains stocks is predicted, to an eight-year low of 580 million tonnes (down 16 million year-on-year), almost entirely because of a contraction of maize inventories to their lowest in a decade.

Including smaller imports by China, Canada, Turkey and Brazil, world trade is forecast 4% down year-on-year.

The monthly report, released on Nov. 17, sees production of wheat and coarse grains trimmed slightly month-on-month, mainly on a smaller wheat estimate.

“The focus is centered on prospects in the main Southern Hemisphere exporters, with concerns mounting about winter crops in Argentina,” the IGC said. “While Australian yields are expected to be strong, heavy rains have heightened the risk of quality losses in eastern areas.”

Linked to a larger figure for maize feeding, total consumption is placed 1 million tonnes higher month-on-month, the IGC said.

Mainly because of changes to wheat, global carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are forecast 4 million tonnes lower than before. The figure for trade is lowered month-on-month due to cuts for maize and barley, it said.

With an assumed recovery in Southern Hemisphere yields, led by Brazil, world soybean production is seen at a record 388 million tonnes in 2022-23, up 2 million tonnes from the October forecast and up 32 million from 2021-22.

“With the net increase in supplies set to exceed that of total use — placed at a record on expanded uptake in feed, food and industrial sectors — stocks are predicted to accumulate, including modest gains in exporters,” the IGC said. “Trade is seen up by 8% year-on-year on bigger deliveries to Asia and smaller importing regions, with South American exporters set to account for a larger share of trade.”

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index rose. 0.4% in November and is 9.5% higher year-on-year at 310.

Tags: wheat, forecast, oats, sorghum, barley, output, IGC, maize, trade, consumption, Grains, coarse grains, crops, ending stocks, Production