IGC revised upward its forecast for global wheat flour trade

The International Grains Council (IGC) has increased its forecast for world wheat flour trade in 2023-24 by 400 thousand tons to 14.5 million tons, mainly due to improved export forecasts for Russia and Turkey.

The revised forecast would imply a slightly higher trade volume compared to the previous year, but it would still be below the five-year average of 14.9 million tons and well below the record high of 17.6 million tons in 2016-17. The IGC said the projected year-on-year growth is partly due to stronger regional trade in South America, which is estimated at 1.1 million tons, up 200,000 tons from the previous year.

“The supply of grain and flour from Argentina to neighboring countries is expected to recover on the back of a potentially higher domestic harvest,” the IGC said in a statement.

Imports from sub-Saharan Africa are also expected to increase by 200 thousand tons to 2 million tons, with Sudan and Somalia expected to see an increase in shipments “as available trade data show larger than expected shipments from Turkey in the first two months of the season.”

The Council forecasts that due to efforts to develop local milling facilities in Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, which are consistently among the largest importers of wheat flour, supplies to the Far East Asia and the CIS will decline year on year.

According to the IGC, flour supplies to another major importer, Iraq, will decline by 400 thousand tons year-on-year to 1.7 million tons, with a high domestic harvest likely to cover import needs. Most of the Iraqi flour will come from Turkey and Russia, the Council said.

Tags: flour