IGC Raises Forecast For 2023/24 World Wheat Crop

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2023/24 season with upward revisions for Ukraine, Russia and the United States outweighing a deteriorating outlook for the crop in Australia.

The inter-governmental body’s monthly update put the global wheat crop at 785 million metric tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 783 million but still well below the prior season’s record of 803 million.

The IGC estimated Ukraine’s wheat production at 27.4 million metric tonnes versus 25.9 million seen previously while exports were upwardly revised to 12.5 million tonnes from 12.0 million.

Exports were still, however, seen below the prior season’s 17.1 million following the expiry in July of a UN-backed deal that allowed exports through a Black Sea safe corridor.

Russia’s wheat crop was seen at 89 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 87.4 million with wheat exports upwardly revised to 49 million tonnes from 48.5 million seen a month ago.

The other major crop revisions were for the United States (49.3 million tonnes vs 47.2 million) and Australia (24.4 million tonnes vs 25.4 million).

The IGC also cut its forecast for 2023/24 global corn production by 3 million metric tonnes to 1.219 billion tonnes driven by downward revisions for the United States (382.7 million vs 384.4 million) and Brazil (127.2 million vs 130.2 million).

The impact was partially offset by an improved outlook for China where a crop of 280.6 million tonnes was forecast, up from 277.4 million previously.

Elsewhere, warm weather has helped European Union farmers make progress in sowing grains for next year’s harvest, with the area devoted to wheat and winter barley expected to be similar to this year, but rapeseed perhaps a little lower, analysts said.

Tags: exports, IGC, Brazil, United States, Production, wheat, crop, Australia, forecast, Ukraine, International Grains Council, Russia, China