IGC experts lowered the forecast of world wheat production to 783.5 million tons

In September report, IGC experts lowered the forecast of global wheat production in 2023/24 MY from 784.1 mln tonnes to 783.5 mln tonnes, which is 21.2 mln tonnes lower than in 2022/23 MY.

In particular, the harvest estimates were lowered for Argentina from 17.5 to 16.5 (12.6 in 2022/23 MY) mln tonnes, Australia – from 27.9 to 25.4 (39.7) mln tonnes, Canada – from 31.5 to 29.8 (34.3) mln tonnes, The EU – from 133.3 to 132.5 (133.8) million tons, while the forecast for Russia was increased from 84.4 to 87.4 (95.4) million tons, Ukraine – from 24.5 to 25.9 (26.3) million tons, although the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine estimates the harvest at 22 million tons.

The forecast for world wheat exports was lowered from 197.2 to 195.9 (207.8) million tons, in particular for Argentina – from 12.4 to 11.5 (4.5) million tons, Australia – from 21 to 19 (31.5) million tons, Canada – from 24.2 to 22.7 (25.2) million tons, while for Russia the estimate was increased from 46.6 to 48.6 (47.8) million tons.

The estimate of world ending stocks in 2023/24 MY was increased from 260.9 to 262.6 (282.5) million tons, in particular for Argentina – from 2.2 to 2.3 (3.3) million tons, Australia – from 1.8 to 2.2 (3.2) million tons, Canada – from 2.8 to 3.2 (3, 8) million tons, Kazakhstan – from 1.8 to 2 (2.6) million tons, Russia – from 10.4 to 10.7 (15.3) million tons, Ukraine – from 2.8 to 4.3 (2.5) million tons, while the estimate for China was reduced from 137.9 to 138.4 (140.3) million tons and the EU – from 13.8 to 13.2 (19) million tons.

Amid the successful exit of two wheat ships from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine through the corridor temporarily established by the Ukrainian Navy, as well as the entry of three more ships for loading, wheat stock prices fell by 2.3-4.6% last week.

As of September 22, Ukraine exported 2.91 million tons of wheat, compared to 2.45 million tons on the same date last year, but it is worth noting that demand prices for wheat are significantly lower than last year, and mainly feed grain is exported.

On Friday, December futures rose:

• by 0.2% to 212.1 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.6% for the week),
• by 0.3% to 262 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4.7%),
• by 0.5% to 283,4 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-2.3%).

At the same time, wheat fell by 0.2% to 235.75 €/t or 251 $/t on the Paris Euronext (-3.3%).

the Lack of soil moisture during the period of active sowing in Ukraine and in the South of Russia in the near future will increase pressure on the quotes, but the intensification of wheat exports through the black sea ports of Ukraine will increase the supply of cheap feed grain on the world market.

In Russia, amid rising export duties, ports and warehouses are being overstocked by agricultural producers, leading to a drop in domestic prices and export prices for wheat.

Tags: wheat, crop forecast