IGC experts lowered the forecast of world grain production and carry-over stocks

Experts of the International Grain Council (IGC) in their August report reduced the forecast of world grain production in MY 2024/25 by 6 mln tons to 2.315 bln tons (primarily due to the decrease in the EU harvest), which will exceed the MY 2023/24 by 16 mln tons and become a new record.

The forecast of world grain consumption is reduced by 3 million tons to 2.321 billion tons, which will exceed the production volume and the figure for MY 2023/24 by 6 million tons. Against this background, the world stocks estimate is lowered to a 10-year low of 581 million tons, which would be 6 million tons below the MY 2023/24 level.

The world wheat production forecast is lowered by 2 million tons to 799 million tons (794 million tons in MY 2023/24), primarily as a result of a reduction in the French harvest estimate from 31 to 27.5 (36.3) million tons. For Ukraine, the harvest forecast was unexpectedly raised from 23.4 to 25.4 (28.4) million tons, although according to official data, 21 million tons of grain was harvested from 97% of the area. The estimate of world wheat ending stocks in MY 2024/25 was lowered by 3 million tons to 266 million tons (270 million tons in MY 2023/24).

The forecast for world corn production is raised by 1 million tons to 1.226 (1.223) billion tons, consumption estimate is lowered by 1 million tons to 1.229 (1.221) billion tons, and ending stocks are lowered by 1 million tons to 277 (281) million tons.

The world soybean production forecast is raised by 4 million tons to a record 419 million tons, 7% higher than MY 2023/24 because all major oilseed producing countries will have good harvests. Consumption is expected to peak at 406 million tons as steady demand for soy products from the food, livestock and biofuel industries drives processing. Soybean stocks will increase by 14 million tons.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was down 4% from the previous month and 18% from the corresponding figure last year, primarily due to a drop in global soybean export prices.

Tags: wheat, crop forecast, corn, grain, soybean