IGC experts lowered the forecast of global grain production in 2024/25 MY, but it will be 15 mln tons higher than in the previous season

In the May report, IGC experts estimated the global grain production in 2023/24 MY at 2.297 bln tons, which is 1.36% higher than in 2022/23 MY. At the same time, the forecast of grain consumption was increased by 2% to 2.311 billion tons compared to the previous season, resulting in a 2% decrease in ending stocks to 588 million tons, including wheat stocks by 6%.

Due to unfavorable weather conditions in Ukraine, Russia, the United States, Argentina and sub-Saharan Africa, the forecast for global grain production in 2024/25 MY was lowered by 10 million tons to 2312 million tons, including 5.9 million tons for Russia to 126.9 million tons. It will be 15 mln tons higher than in the previous season, as the decrease in corn production will be offset by the increase in other grains.

The world grain consumption in 2024/25 MY is expected to increase by 9 mln tonnes to 2.32 bln tonnes compared to the previous season, so the world ending stocks will decrease by 1% to the 10-year low of 580 mln tonnes.

Thus, in comparison with the April estimates, the forecast of world wheat production in 2024/25 MY is reduced by 3.2 mln tonnes to 794.5 mln tonnes (4.1 mln tonnes more than in 2023/24 MY), in particular, for Russia – from 90.4 mln tonnes to 85.5 mln tonnes. The world ending stocks of wheat will decrease by 6.1 mln tonnes to 259.8 mln tonnes compared to 2023/24 MY.

The forecast for global rice production in 2024/25 MY was increased by 3 mln tonnes to a record 523 mln tonnes, and ending stocks – by 1 mln tonnes to 171 mln tonnes, which is 9 mln tonnes and 3 mln tonnes higher than in the previous season.

The forecast of world corn production in 2024/25 MY was decreased by 5 mln tonnes to 1.22 bln tonnes (5 mln tonnes less than in 2023/24 MY), and world consumption was increased by 2 mln tonnes to 1.226 bln tonnes, which is 6 mln tonnes higher than in 2023/24 MY. As a result, the estimate of ending stocks was lowered by 10 million tons to 281 million tons, which is 5 million tons lower than the previous season.

IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose to a 4-month high due to a strong jump in wheat prices caused by difficult weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular frosts in Russia. The IGC GOI wheat index rose 16% to a 7-month high.

IGC GOI corn index rose by 4% during the month amid supply uncertainty, although supply from Ukraine was stable, supported by strong export demand.

IGC GOI rice index also increased by 4% due to higher prices in Thailand amid shrinking spot supplies and stronger export demand.

IGC GOI soybean index rose by 9% amid harvest and logistical problems in South America.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, grain, EU, wheat, USA, crop forecast