If Ukraine loses the war, European farmers will be forced to think about land protection, not grain prices – opinion

The blockade of the Ukrainian border with Poland continues. Denys Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the VAR (Vseukrainska Agrarna Rada – All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council), explains whether the mirror response of Ukrainian carriers, who will not allow Polish trucks to enter Ukraine, is worthy of a response and whether the confrontation will be quickly ended.

“The blockade of Ukrainian carriers in response to Poland’s actions will be ineffective. A real mirror response could be a ban on imports of Polish products, in particular, on the supply of dairy and meat products, which are significant. But in this way, we would unleash an economic war. We should not do this to please our enemies, third countries, namely Russia.

If we look at the presence of Ukrainian products in the EU, it is not so significant, but Russia is also present with the ability to sell its agricultural grain, and Russia perceives us as a competitor. Therefore, it is important for Ukraine to reach an understanding and start working at the level of technical groups, which are currently formed by industry experts and relevant ministries.

In fact, Polish farmers cannot help but realize that if Ukraine loses the war, Poland will be threatened by Russian aggression. Then European farmers will think not about grain prices, but about how to save their land,” said Denys Marchuk. According to expectations, taking into account certain political factors, the conflict will take a long time to resolve.

“Unfortunately, it will not be possible to resolve the Polish-Ukrainian conflict in a month or two. The stakes in the negotiations are high. The situation will not be resolved quickly. We will probably see negotiations throughout 2024. The European integration process facing Ukraine requires a number of issues to be resolved at the level of Brussels and the European Commission. The EU is allocating €50 billion for subsidies in the agricultural sector, which Ukraine will also apply for. Accordingly, we can expect periodic strikes by dissatisfied European farmers. Elections to local governments in April and subsequent elections to the European Parliament may also exacerbate confrontation on the western borders. After all, today we see not only farmers but also politicians on strike in Europe,” added Denys Marchuk.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, EU, war