Huge production must lead to great recovery of brazilian soybean stocks in 2023

Soybean exports from Brazil are expected to total 94 mln tons in 2023, up from the 78.73 mln registered in 2022 and also above the 2021 record of 86.11 mln tons. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand projection released by SAFRAS & Mercado, which indicates an increase of 19% between one season and another. There was no change from the previous projection, released in April.

SAFRAS indicates the crush at 53 mln tons in 2023 and 50.89 mln tons in 2022, with an increase of 4% between one season and another. In April, the estimate was also 53 mln. SAFRAS indicates imports of 150 thousand tons for 2023, down 64% from 2022. In comparison to the 2023 season, the total soybean supply is expected to rise by 17% to 159.341 mln tons.

The total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 150.5 mln tons, up 14% from the previous year. As a result, ending stocks must increase by 150%, from 3.53 to 8.84 mln tons. SAFRAS projects soymeal production at 40.82 mln tons in 2023, 5% higher. Exports are expected to rise 8% to 22 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 19 mln, up 1%. Stocks are expected to fall 11% to 1.38 mln tons. Soyoil production is expected to increase by 9% to 10.8 mln tons. Brazil must export 2.2 mln tons, down 15%. Domestic consumption must rise 25% to 9 mln tons. The use for biodiesel is expected to increase by 16% to 4.5 mln tons. The forecast is for stocks to fall 54% to 330 thousand tons.

Tags: exports, Brazil, soybean, ending stocks, soyoil, forecast, soymeal, supply, demand, projection