Hot August weather forecast threatens U.S. soybeans

A forecast calling for a hot and dry August in the western portion of the U.S. Midwest is putting one major crop in jeopardy.

“The soybean crop is at risk, in my opinion,” said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. “I am concerned about the soybean production number for this year.”

U.S. corn and soybean crops escaped most of the damage caused by the July heatwave, which delivered scorching temperatures to the Plains region ranging from Texas to South Dakota.

The heatwave singed the western fringes of the corn and soybean growing region but for the most part, the Midwest had a good mix of weather that month.

August could be a different story.

World Weather is forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall in the western half of the corn and soybean belt and the Plains region.

The eastern half will experience a better mix of weather where it will start out hot and dry and then cool down with adequate rainfall.

“Soybeans have the most potential to lose (yield) from August and early-September weather than any other crop in the U.S.,” said Lerner.

That is because pod setting and filling occurs in August. The crop needs recurring rainfall at that time, which appears unlikely in the western half of the Midwest.

He thinks national average yields will fall below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s forecast of 51.5 bushels per acre, which could cause “a lot of excitement” in oilseed markets.

DTN meteorologist John Baranick offered a similar forecast in his July 26 Ag Weather Forum column.

He said a high-pressure ridge across the middle of the U.S. will lead to higher heat and dry conditions across most of the country’s growing regions in August.

“The overall effect for filling corn and pod-filling soybeans in the country should point to reduced yields,” said Baranick.

Storms in Canada will pass through the northern half of the U.S., producing showers and thunderstorms at times, but they are likely to be scattered and weak.

“Localized areas may get enough rainfall at the right time to make for decent yields but there are more areas than not that will be too hot and dry and should see their crop conditions sliding throughout the month,” he said.

Lerner said yields for the bulk of the corn crop have already been determined because the crop is in the filling stage. Moisture was adequate during the pollination phase in July.

“Because the crop has pollinated under favourable conditions, the bulk of the crop is going to be there,” he said.

If the corn crop receives another one or two soaking rains in August, it should be in good shape. If not, there could be shrunken kernels but nothing too dramatic.

Baranick said one caveat to his August forecast is the thunderstorms associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation that could result in increased precipitation and cooler temperatures in the Aug. 10-15 period.

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