Grains and oilseeds. Technical Analysis March 31, 2020.

Wheat May 2020.

Wheat trading reversed this afternoon and ended mostly higher. KC HRW wheat was the leader of the day with the front months closing 6 1/4 to 7 1/4 cents higher. CBOT wheat was lower in May but 4 1/4 and 6 1/4 cents higher in the other nearbys. Spring wheat futures were 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents higher in the front months. The USDA Planting intentions report indicated that wheat producers intend to plant 44.655 MA for new crop. That is 503,000 acres below last year, and slightly less than pre-report estimates. The largest nominal winter wheat planting increase yr/yr was in TX plantings with 300,000 acres more. Montana winter wheat plantings totaled 1.6 MA which was the largest nominal decrease yr/yr. March 1 wheat stocks were 181 mbu below last year, with the USDA Grain Stocks report showing 1.412 bbu. Traders were expecting 1.385 – 1.593 bbu. MACD indicates that the trend is more likely to move in the same direction with the blazing up trend. RSI is on the 64 which shows us great activity of the market players buying the wheat now. MA also gives us all signs of the buy-signals with actual price being well above the MA line- $570.2: $538.6

• May 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.68 3/4, down 3/4 cent,
• May 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.93, up 6 1/4 cents,
• May 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.39 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents.

Corn May 2020.

Corn futures rallied back from the post report meltdown and flirted with break-even for the day, but ultimately ended the Tuesday session with 1/2 to 2 1/4 cent losses. USDA says corn producers intended to plant 96.99 MA for the 2020/21 crop year as of the first two weeks in March. Last year corn plantings were 89.7 MA, and ahead of the report traders were anticipating 94.328 MA. SD corn acreage showed the largest increase yr/yr nominally and as a percent of last year plantings, with a 1.65 million acreage increase. Ohio intentions are also up 32.1% from their Prevented Planting suppressed 2019. The market does not need 97 million acres at known demand levels and if trendline yield is achieved. March 1 corn stocks were bull friendly at 7.953 bbu, which is 7.7% lower yr/yr, and below the average pre-report estimate of 8.1 billion bushels. MACD gives us the hint that the downtrend will continue and there are no clear signs of the trade revers. RSI is really low- 31.6 which indicates that the market is on the edge of being oversold, traders are afraid of buying corn because they are aware of the continuation of the trend. Together with very unstable overall economy situation corn investments could be very risky. MA gives us the same picture with price being below the 50-day average price.   

Soybean May 2020.

Soybean futures rallied back from the post report midday lows and finished in the green. The front months were 2 3/4 to 3 3/4 cents. Soybean meal futures ended $4.00/ton lower in May contracts. May bean oil futures closed 14 points higher. The Planting Intentions report from this morning showed 83.51 MA of soybeans intended to be planted for the 2020/21 crop. That is 9.7% above last year’s flood hindered plantings. Analysts estimates were around 84.9 million acres. South Dakota had the largest increase in plantings yr/yr, both nominally and as a percent of last year, with a 54% increase to 5.4 million acres of soybean intentions in the state. Soybean stocks on March 1 were 2.253 bbu, which is slightly above the expected 2.228 bbu from the surveys. March 1 stocks were 474 mbu lower yr/yr. USDA will release the Fats and Oils reports tomorrow, analysts estimate that the soybean crush in February will range 175 – 179 mbu. If realized that would be the largest Feb crush on record, aided by Leap Day. Traders anticipate soybean oil stocks to be 2.075 to 2.400 billion lbs on Feb 29. MACD lines show sus that there might be trend reverse in the nearest future, however, both lines are moving up so most likely the trend will remain as it is right now. RSI is at 50 which shows fragile stability in the market with people being considered more about the overall economy situation and if there are enough buyers for the beans. MA 50-day price is below the actual price which gives buy-signal; however, the Corona virus outcomes are the most essential economy movers as of right now.

• May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.86, up 3 3/4 cents,
• Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.89 1/2, up 3 cents,
• Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.88 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,
• Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.81, up 3 1/4 cents,
• May 20 Soybean Meal closed at $321.50, down $4.00
• May 20 Soybean Oil closed at $27.01, up $0.14  

Detailed information on grains and oilseeds, supply and demand balances, price trends, crop condition and harvesting/planting progress in Black Sea countries is available on UkrAgroConsult’s online platform AgriSupp.

AgriSupp is a new online tool combining rapid access to daily updates on the Black Sea markets, reports, historical information, as well as data processing and download tools.

UkrAgroConsult grants agricultural market participants 14 days of free demo access to the analytical online platform AgriSupp.

UkrAgroConsult