Grain Production-2022 Forecast in Ukraine: Variety of Scenarios

UkrAgroConsult

• Production estimates by UkrAgroConsult – scenarios from pessimistic to optimistic
• Current weather conditions in Ukraine
• Expectations of surprising high exports in MY 2022/23

Wheat

The pessimistic scenario provides a harvesting area reduction in the regions of hostilities (in each region the decline differs depending on the intensity of the military actions)

Optimistic one relies on a quick cease fire and war end with growing inputs (incl.fuel) and equipment supply at the optimum time for sowing.

Medium/basic scenario is in-between of the mentioned above and UkrAgroConsult considers it as the most likely.

For all scenarios, yield decline is assumed, since agri technologies application will suffer due to deficit of fuel and finances;

The main areas of winter wheat cultivation, incl. Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Kharkiv regions, fall into the area of hostilities. Yields will be determined by technology, full scale application of which now looks questionable.

Ukraine faced in Feb and March a deficit of precipitation:

• less than 50% of the normal in Center and East of Ukraine
• in the western regions from 50 to 80% of the normal.

In the coming days a cyclone with significant precipitation will come to Ukraine, which should improve soil moisture considerably;

According to our medium/basic scenario, wheat production-2022 in Ukraine will be 19.8 M mt, exports estimations are at 14-16 MMT, quite high due to unprecedentedly high ending stocks of the 2021/22 season;

Barley

Winter barley situation is similar to wheat. However, yield may decline not so significantly as barley cultivation less depends on technology application. Besides, winter barley areas are mainly in the Odesa and Mykolaiv areas with not so sufficient military risks;

By April 7th, 551 K ha of spring barley out of scheduled 1036.5 K ha were planted (53% of the intentions, the Ministry of Agricultural Policy reported). Moreover, the planting rates exceed last year’s in Zakarpattia, Volyn, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Sumy, Odesa and Kirovohrad regions;

According to UkrAgroConsult basic scenario, total barley harvest-2022 in Ukraine is estimated between 6.1 and 7 M mt.

Corn

Forecasts of Corn production-2022 are the most variable compared to other cereals. Firstly, a significant corn area falls in regions with active hostilities. Secondly, corn is the most technological crop, requiring a sufficient input application.

Besides that, export and domestic prices decline might possibly lead to a reduction in sowing areas.

According to UkrAgroConsult medium/basic scenario corn crop-2022 in Ukraine can be between 19 and 24 M mt.

More detailed information on the latest trends in grain market, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers of ‘BLACK SEA GRAIN’ Weekly Report by UkrAgroConsult.

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(Based on UkrAgroConsult webinar BLACK SEA GRAIN. CONFLICTING S&D as of April 6, 2022)

Tags: wheat, crop forecast, Ukraine, corn, UkrAgroConsult, grain, barley