Grain prices close higher. Monday July 25, 2022

The soybean meal market was very strong today, taking soybeans sharply higher. Corn and wheat also closed higher.

At the end of the day, September corn was up 16¢ and December corn closed 19¢ higher. August soybean futures closed up 38¢, and November soybeans closed 30¢ higher. Wheat futures also closed higher, with CBOT wheat up 11¢. KC wheat was up 19¢, and Minneapolis wheat up 13¢.

The rally today was an orderly rally – showing me it is demand driven, not fund driven.

The extended weather forecast brings in more rain and seasonal temps this week, before much of the Corn Belt turns very hot by late next week. Dryness is a concern now in about 30% of the Corn Belt.

The USDA Crop Progress report today showed corn conditions down 3% at 61% good to excellent. Crop conditions went down in the southern plains and Delta and held steady in many states.

Soybean ratings fell by 2% to 59% good to excellent. Again the southern plains and delta soybean ratings took a hit.

These ratings came in lower than expected and should be supportive for prices on Tuesday.

Spring wheat conditions were reported at down 3% at 68% good to excellent. Winter wheat harvest hit 77%, up 7% from last week.

In the livestock market today, August hogs closed down $1.47 at $117.22. August cattle closed up 37¢ at $137.75. August feeders closed down $2.25 at $179.30.

In the outside markets, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.27 points at 106.45, crude oil is up $2.08 per barrel at $96.78, S&P futures are up 10 points at 3,975, and Dow futures are up 115 points at 31,991.

The corn and soybean markets were higher overnight, they pulled back right after the 8:30 open and then rallied higher late morning. The weather pattern looks favorable for this week, with the GFS getting very hot out in the 6-to-10-day time period. Based on my drive through southern Minnesota this weekend, I look for corn and soybean ratings to move lower in the USDA report later today. For the end of July, the soybeans are really small.

 It has been a volatile day with September corn having a 14¢ trading range, August soybeans having 22¢ trading range, and September CBOT wheat having a 33¢ trading range.

At this hour, September corn is up 11¢ and December corn is 12¢ higher. August soybean futures are up 27¢. November soybeans are 26¢ higher. Wheat futures are higher, with CBOT wheat up 15¢, KC wheat up 21¢, and Minneapolis wheat 21¢ higher.

Weather is positive for prices and the outside market factors are also favorable with the U.S. dollar down 26 points, crude up $1.70 per barrel, and the Dow is up 105 points.

In the livestock market today, August hogs are down $2.12 at $116.57. August cattle are up 67¢ at $138.05. August feeders are down $1.12 at $180.37.

The key today will be the noon weather model updates and if the heat returns late next week.

Less than 24 hours after signing an agreement with the UN that would allow Ukraine grain exports, Russia bombed key grain export facilities in the port at Odesa. The attack (four missiles were shot and two hit grain facilities) is a violation of the agreement and calls into doubt why Russia even signed the agreement. I also view the extended forecasts as positive for price.

September corn is up 13¢. December corn is up 14¢. August soybeans are trading 21¢ higher. November soybeans are up 22¢. Wheat futures are 22¢ to 26¢ higher.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, corn and soybean futures are lower. On the Matif exchange in Europe, wheat futures are 19 cents a bushel lower at $10.93.

I look for the USDA Crop Progress report today to show corn and soybean ratings down by 1% to 2% and several private forecasters have begun to take projected corn and soybean yields lower. When the funds are done selling, this is setting up to be a good buy.

The stock market in China is up 0.7%. Japan is up 0.6%, European stocks are up 0.2%. In the early trade in the U.S., the stock market has turned higher with the Dow up 18 points. Crude oil prices are up $1.30 per barrel.

In the early livestock trade, futures are all lower.

Author: Al Kluis

Tags: futures, Market, feeders, corn, животноводство, soybean, hogs, wheat, soybean meal, cattle