Grain harvest forecast in Bulgaria, 2023

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

The final figures for Bulgaria’s 2022 grain harvest will be published in the summer. UkrAgroConsult does not change the current estimates of the grain harvest in Bulgaria. Preliminary numbers of the 2022 harvest, published by Bulgarian AgMinistry:

• wheat: 6.34 M t (-11% from 2021);
• barley: 617.6 K t (-10% y/y);
• corn: 2.5 M t (-26%).

The pace of grain exports is far behind both last year and the long-term average. Exports as of February 28:

• wheat: 1861 K t;
• barley: 80 K t;
• corn: 218 K t.

Factors decreasing exports:

• reduced harvest 2022 due to drought,
• strong competition from Ukrainian exports,
• delayed sales of Bulgarian farmers who hoped for upward price correction.

Reduction in grain exports will lead to record carry-over stocks of the 2022/23 season, which may exceed 2.25 M t.

Eurostat has already released winter crops areas in Bulgaria. Compared to the previous season, all winter crops area decreased:

• wheat area: 1166 K ha (-2% y/y),
• barley: 114 K ha (-7%),
• rye: 7 K ha (-16%).

The IGC preliminary forecast for 2023 grain production in Bulgaria:

• wheat: 6.30 M t;
• barley: 570 K t;
• corn: 3.275 M t.

Bulgarian experts are more optimistic. Bulgarian Center for Agri-Policy Analysis (CAPA) expects wheat area under in 2023 will be at 1230 K ha, barley – 116 K ha with 2023 harvest being at:

• wheat – 6.4 M t, average yield of 5.2 t/ha,
• barley – 575 K ma, average yield of 4.95 t/ha.

Corn area-2023: Farmers Decisions Factors

• the decline in demand from the EU and third countries in the current 2022/23 due to the preference for Ukrainian corn may limit Bulgarian farmers intentions to expand corn area in 2023;
• corn prices are now the same and in some regions of the country even ahead of the milling wheat values. As corn yields are higher compared to wheat, this may encourage farmers to increase corn areas;
• reduction in planted areas and, consequently, corn production in Ukraine may push Bulgarian farmers to decrease wheat area in favor of corn.

Our estimates of the grain harvest in Bulgaria in 2023 can be found in the full version of the article.

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Tags: Bulgaria, corn, barley, wheat, rye, sown area, crop forecast