The forecast for global flour trade in 2023-24 was revised slightly higher by the International Grains Council (IGC) in its quarterly update on Jan. 11. The Council projects shipments to reach 14.7 million tonnes (wheat equivalent), an increase of 200,000 tonnes from its October forecast.
The IGC said the projected increase is mainly tied to unusually large shipments from Turkey, perennially the world’s biggest flour exporter. Turkish exports have increased substantially to sub-Saharan Africa.
“Available customs data indicate that Turkey’s deliveries to that region in the first four months of the 2023-24 season (July-June) reached 900,000 tonnes, the highest in at least 15 years and up nearly three-fold compared to the five-year average for that period,” the IGC said. “Shipments to Somalia, Sudan and Djibouti have been particularly strong, with the deliveries to the latter termed to be mostly transshipped to Ethiopia.”
The IGC said Turkish exports to sub-Saharan Africa more than offset lagging shipments to destinations such as Syria, Yemen and Sri Lanka.
The Council’s full-year projection for Turkey’s flour exports would be a record 5.8 million tonnes, up from 4.9 million in 2022-23. The large increase of shipments from Turkey will more than offset smaller outgo from traditional flour exporters such as Kazakhstan, Russia and the European Union. Kazakhstan is expected to rank No. 2 in exports in 2023-24 at 2.5 million tonnes, about 250,000 tonnes below last year’s total, the IGC said. Russia is seen exporting 700,000 tonnes this year, more than 400,000 tonnes less than the previous year.
“Amid expectations for a recovery in domestic demand and signs of export competition in some markets, including Africa, the EU export projection is trimmed slightly from the October update, now seen at 500,000 tonnes (compared to 600,000 in October),” the IGC said. “As of early January, EU 2023-24 cumulative dispatches were reported at around 260,000 tonnes, broadly steady year-on-year.”
On the import side, revisions from October include a 205,000-tonne reduction for projected purchases by Syria, owing to reduced shipments from neighboring Turkey.
Intake by the world’s two largest flour importers — Afghanistan and Iraq — was unchanged from the IGC’s October forecast but will see a significant decline year-on-year, the Council noted. Afghanistan’s imports are forecast to fall by 50,000 tonnes, to 2.35 million, while Iraq will see a steeper drop of more than 300,000 tonnes, to 1.7 million.
Although 1% higher year-on-year, 2023-24 global flour trade is projected slightly lower than the prior five-year average, partly due to declining imports by Iraq, according to the IGC.
