Global soybean prices are falling in anticipation of the new USDA report, but they remain stable in Ukraine

Analysts expect the USDA’s October report due today to show a slightly revised U.S. soybean balance sheet, but soybean futures continue to fall under pressure from falling domestic demand and soybean oil prices, which are significantly higher than palm and sunflower oil. Also, soybean prices in the US are being pressured by the active export of soybeans from Brazil and forecasts of an increase in the harvest in the new season.

According to customs data, in September Brazil exported 6.4 million tons of soybeans (4.9 million tons in September 2022), of which 79% or 5.1 million tons were delivered to China, which is a record for the month. In total, for 9 months of 2023, Brazil exported 87.3 million tons of soybeans, which is 16.8 million tons higher than the pace of the previous season. Of this volume, 61.7 million tons were shipped to China, 2.7 million tons to Spain, 2.2 million tons to Thailand, 1.7 million tons to Turkey, 1.6 million tons to Mexico and 1 .5 million tons – to Iran.

Exports of corn from Brazil in September reached 8.8 million tons, which became the second indicator after the record 9.4 million tons in August. In September, 3.3 million tons of corn were delivered to China, and in 9 months of 2023 – 7.9 million tons in total.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 1.6% to $460/t yesterday (-7.8% for the month, -8.6% for the year) amid favorable weather for harvesting in the US, where On October 1, soybeans were threshed on 43% of the area (37% on average over 5 years).

In Ukraine, purchase prices for GM soybeans remain at the level of UAH 13,000-13,500/t with delivery to the factory and $350-355/t with delivery to Danube ports. Farmers are holding back sales in anticipation of rising prices, as happened last year.

At the same time, demand prices for GM soybeans delivered to Romania decreased by $10/t to $380-390/t, and for non-GM soybeans delivered to Hungary or Italy – to €380-410/t.

Another drop in sunseed prices will force farmers to increase sales of soybeans, as corn prices are now also significantly lower than they were last year.