Global demand for wheat will grow by 11%
Global demand for wheat is expected to grow by 11% over the next decade.
This is stated in the agricultural forecast of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031.
The following factors will influence this:
- the growth of the world population by 800 million (average annual growth of 0.9%);
- the use of wheat as animal feed, especially in Asia, where meat consumption is increasing;
- demand for biofuels directly as a source of ethanol and indirectly as other food sources are diverted to biofuel production.
Much of the demand will come from developing countries in Asia. Most of them will need more imports from major grain producers.
OECD-FAO wheat consumption forecast and international trade statistics until 2031
“Increasing wheat production in Russia will increase competition on world markets. Competition will become fiercer if Russian farmers can produce better quality wheat suitable for food production. However, the long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine may limit Russia’s export opportunities,” the report says.
It is expected that India, China, Pakistan and Egypt will account for approximately half of the growth in world consumption. Significant growth in demand is also expected in Africa (Nigeria +29%, Ethiopia +22%) and ASEAN (Vietnam +21%, Indonesia +17%, Philippines +19%).
Long-term forecasts provide useful information, but researchers face numerous problems. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows how unexpected events can cause significant disruptions in production and trade. The potential for ongoing conflicts and the growth of production costs, especially for fertilizers, may affect production in the short term,” analysts note.
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