Fund liquidation was the feature in the grain markets. Friday, April 1, 2022

Fund liquidation was the feature in the grain markets. Now that the USDA reports are factored in, the focus will be on U.S. weather and planting progress. The first weekly USDA Crop Conditions report will be out next Monday afternoon. Next Friday is the next monthly USDA Supply-Demand report.

At the close today, May corn was down 13 ¾ cents, while December corn closed up 4 cents. In the soybean market, May closed 35 cents lower, and November futures closed down 14 cents. CBOT wheat closed down 21 cents, KC wheat was down 17 cents, and Minneapolis July closed down 11 cents.

For the week, May corn closed down 19 cents at $7.35. This compares to $5.60 last year at this time. For soybeans, the May contract closed down $1.28 per bushel compared to $14.02 last year. This week CBOT wheat closed down $1.18, KC wheat was down 98 cents, and Minneapolis wheat closed down 39 cents.

The main factor looking ahead to trade on Monday will be the headline news out of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Fund liquidation continues as the big inverses in the cash and futures markets come crashing in.

Currently, July corn is down 8¢, December corn is up 6¢. In soybeans July soybeans are down 13¢ and November is down 6¢. Wheat is mixed with CBOT lower and Minneapolis and KC trading higher.

For the week nearby corn is down 17¢, nearby soybeans are down $1.10 per bushel, and wheat futures are down 30¢ to over $1.00 per bushel.

Peace talks continue as the war continues. The news is mixed and the day-to-day volatility continues.

The stock market continues lower and livestock is under pressure.

Next week more attention will be focused on North American weather and planting progress. Wheat traders will watch the release of the first USDA Crop conditions report. After the USDA reports yesterday, the grain markets will be very weather sensitive.

The grain markets look like they will continue to consolidate. The big surprise was the USDA’s Prospective Planting report, that showed 2.5 million acres less corn than expected, and soybean acreage came in 2.2 million acres above trade estimates. The total corn and soybean acreage came in at 180.5 million acres. The grain stocks report showed slightly less corn than expected, more soybeans than expected, and for wheat about 20 million bushels less wheat stocks than expected.

Now that the reports are factored in, the key will again be the war in Ukraine, and, starting in April, more focus will be on U.S. weather and planting conditions. Weekly USDA crop condition reports will begin next Monday.

Grain prices were very volatile yesterday. Corn closed higher, soybeans sharply lower, and the wheat market was mixed. In the overnight markets, the grain markets are mostly lower after starting out higher last night.

At this hour, July corn is down 10¢, with December corn trading 5¢ higher. July soybeans are down 20¢ with November down 14¢, and wheat prices are mixed with Chicago prices lower and KC and Minneapolis slightly higher. Funds continue to liquidate long positions.

Today in the outside markets crude oil is slightly lower after moving sharply lower yesterday. The U.S. dollar is up 0.29 points and the U.S. stock index futures are lower again. The huge old-crop premium to new-crop price premium continues to move lower.

First, keep in mind that the March 31 acreage report is called the Planting Intentions report and that the actual numbers may look different in the June 30 Planting Report.

With the current soybean to corn price ratio at 2.09 to 1, this rally will buy corn acres this spring if Mother Nature cooperates.

Successful Farming

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