French soft wheat crop forecast to shrink 15% after soggy season

France’s main wheat crop is expected to fall by 15% this year to its lowest level since 2020 after months of heavy rain reduced planting and hurt yield potential in the EU’s top exporter of the cereal, the country’s farm ministry said on Tuesday.

In a first projection, the ministry put soft wheat production at 29.65 million metric tons, which would be only the third time in 20 years that output has been below 30 million tons, after 2020 and 2016.

The forecast was based on an expected yield of 6.99 tons per hectare (t/ha), against 7.38 t/ha last year, and an estimated harvested area of 4.24 million hectares, compared with 4.75 million in 2023.

The estimated 2024 area had also been revised down from 4.40 million hectares in June.

“Excess moisture and a lack of sunshine have weighed on yield potential,” the ministry said in its crop report.

Analysts and traders have been anticipating a soft wheat crop of around 29-30 million tons. However, worse than expected indications from France’s winter barley harvest, which is in full swing, have created additional concern about wheat.

The ministry’s projection for the soft wheat yield was above the 6.4 t/ha forecast by crop institute Arvalis last week. If taken with the ministry’s latest area estimate, Arvalis’ yield forecast would give production of only around 27 million tons.

Total barley production was pegged by the ministry at 11.29 million tons, down 8% from last year.

Winter barley production was forecast at 8.02 million tons, down 17% from last year and below last month’s initial forecast of 8.6 million.

Production of spring barley was forecast to rise 26% to 3.27 million tons, supported by a 29% jump in area.

For rapeseed, production was pegged down nearly 8% from last year at 3.94 million tons, hit by a sharp drop in yields. That was also well below last month’s initial forecast of 4.2 million tons.

Among later-harvested crops, the ministry sharply increased its 2024 estimate of the grain maize area, including crop grown for seeds, to 1.6 million hectares from 1.44 million expected last month, now up 22% on last year, the ministry said.

For sugar beet, the ministry raised its area expectation to 411,000 hectares from 398,000 in June and more than 8% above the 2023 level.

Tags: winter barley, France, grain maize, Production, spring barley, wheat, rapeseed, crop, forecast, yield, output, soft wheat, barley, estimate, planting