FranceAgriMer raises wheat export forecast to record high

FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union to a record high on Wednesday, lifted by hefty sales to China and expected shipments to Morocco after it extended its suspension of import duties.

In supply and demand estimates, the office put French soft wheat shipments outside the bloc at 13.3 million tonnes, up from 13.2 million estimated last month and now 38% above last season. That marked the eighth consecutive monthly increase to the forecast. The previous record stood at 12.9 million tonnes in 2010/11 during an export embargo by Russia.

“Moroccan duties have been lowered until December, thus allowing a possible flow for French soft wheat, and China is still very active on the French export market," Marion Duval, deputy head of FranceAgriMer's grain unit, told reporters. Despite the higher exports outside the EU, FranceAgriMer increased its estimate for soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2019/20 season on June 30, now seen at 2.9 million tonnes, up from the 2.6 million tonnes forecast in April and 2.5 million tonnes in 2018/19.

This was mainly because of a bigger delivered crop and reduced estimates for animal feed use and exports within the EU as livestock feed producers turn towards cheaper maize.

FranceAgriMer's projection on demand for bakery goods and crop-based biofuel was unchanged after cutting its outlook last month when it factored in a drop in demand because the new coronavirus has forced consumers to stay home.

The office was waiting for clearer figures on food demand during the epidemic before further adjusting its wheat demand estimate, Duval added. FranceAgriMer cut its estimate for French 2019/20 grain maize ending stocks to 2.2 million tonnes from 2.4 million tonnes last month, to take account of the good price differential with wheat, which makes maize more competitive in animal feed.

Reuters